In 2024, the semiconductor industry will continue to show rapid development, driven by technological advancements, market demand, and global supply chain restructuring. With the continuous maturity of artificial intelligence, 5G, autonomous driving, quantum computing and other technologies, the semiconductor industry is ushering in a series of unprecedented changes. Here are some of the key trends in the semiconductor industry in 2024 and their potential impact.
1. Popularization of advanced manufacturing process and 3nm technology
With the continuous advancement of technology, 3nm process technology will begin to enter the mass production stage in 2024, becoming the key for global semiconductor manufacturers to compete for the market. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) and Samsung are currently the main leaders in this space, with TSMC planning to achieve full mass production of the 3nm process by the end of 2024. According to IDC, the global semiconductor market will reach more than $500 billion in 2024, of which the proportion of chips with 3nm and smaller sizes will increase significantly.
These small-size chips will be mainly used in high-performance computing, smartphones, artificial intelligence chips and other fields. For example, Apple's A17 chip and NVIDIA's H100 GPU both feature 3nm technology. With the popularity of these high-performance chips, the technology competition in the semiconductor industry will further intensify, driving more intelligent and efficient computing capabilities.
2. The rise of gallium nitride (GaN) and silicon carbide (SiC) technologies
Gallium nitride (GaN) and silicon carbide (SiC) materials are gradually replacing traditional silicon materials in power management, 5G base stations, electric vehicle (EV) charging and other fields, becoming an important trend in the development of semiconductor technology in 2024. According to a report by MarketsandMarkets, the GaN and SiC markets are expected to reach approximately $5.8 billion and $8 billion, respectively, by 2027.
For example, in the field of electric vehicles, companies such as Tesla and BYD are actively adopting SiC materials to improve battery charging efficiency and extend battery life. GaN technology is also widely used in fast-charging devices, such as Qualcomm's GaN fast charging solution that supports up to 65W, which has received good feedback in the consumer electronics and automotive markets.
3. Further development of AI chips and dedicated processors
In 2024, the demand for artificial intelligence (AI) chips will continue to surge, especially in the fields of data centers, autonomous driving, and smart manufacturing. According to Gartner's predictions, the AI chip market will exceed $35 billion by 2024, and companies such as NVIDIA, AMD, and Intel are ramping up R&D efforts to launch more efficient AI processors.
NVIDIA's H100 chip, AMD's Instinct series, and Google's TPU are all getting technology upgrades in 2024. Especially in the field of data centers and cloud computing, the performance improvement of AI chips will greatly improve the efficiency of machine learning training and inference to meet the needs of large-scale data processing and real-time decision-making.
Figure:2024 Semiconductor Industry Trends Recap
4. Innovation in semiconductor packaging technology
With the improvement of chip integration, semiconductor packaging technology will also usher in innovation in 2024. Advanced packaging technologies such as 3D packaging, system-in-package (SiP) and FOPLP (Fan-Out Panel Level Packaging) are widely used to meet more complex chip design requirements.
For example, TSMC's FOPLP technology has been applied to high-performance processors and smartphones. FOPLP technology can integrate more chip functions in a smaller package size, reducing the size and improving heat dissipation, allowing the chip to operate stably at higher frequencies. In addition, 3D packaging technology is also being applied to AI chips and high-performance computing (HPC) fields, helping chips achieve higher performance in a smaller space.
5. Global supply chain and local production
The semiconductor industry continues to be challenged by global supply chain disruptions, especially since the outbreak of the pandemic in 2020, and supply chain resilience and security have received unprecedented attention. In 2024, major semiconductor companies will accelerate the localization of production, especially in the United States and Europe, to reduce their dependence on manufacturing in Asia.
For example, TSMC and Intel's investments in the United States continue to increase. In 2024, TSMC will build a new 5nm process production plant in Arizona, and plans to start production in 2025, with an expected annual production capacity of 2 million 12-inch wafers. In addition, the U.S. government has funded semiconductor production through the CHIPS Act, which is expected to attract more than $52 billion in investment over the next few years.
6. Quantum computing and new semiconductor materials
Quantum computing is becoming an important area of research in the semiconductor industry. Although the commercialization of quantum computing is still in its early stages, in 2024, more and more companies and research institutions have made breakthroughs in quantum computing chips and new semiconductor materials. Companies such as IBM, Google, and Intel have demonstrated prototypes of quantum computing based on superconductivity, optical quantum, and semiconductor materials.
In addition, new semiconductor materials such as graphene and two-dimensional materials such as transition metal disulfides are also being studied. These materials are expected to provide chips with higher electron mobility and smaller size, enabling future computers to work on a more efficient basis.
7. Chip requirements for automotive electronics and intelligent driving
With the rapid development of electric vehicles and intelligent driving technology, the demand for semiconductors in the field of automotive electronics continues to grow. In 2024, the global smart car chip market is expected to reach nearly $25 billion. In particular, the use of semiconductors in autonomous driving, on-board sensors, and electric vehicle charging systems will increase substantially.
New models launched in 2024 by companies such as Tesla, Ford and BYD will all be equipped with more chips, covering everything from power management to autonomous driving. For example, Tesla's self-developed AI chip used in its self-driving system (FSD) will be updated in 2024 to further improve autonomous driving performance.
8. ESG and sustainability
In 2024, while semiconductor companies are promoting technological innovation, environmental protection and social responsibility (ESG) issues are becoming more and more important. As global concerns about climate change and sustainability increase, semiconductor manufacturers are also beginning to incorporate green production into their strategic planning.
TSMC, for example, has pledged to achieve 100% renewable energy use by 2025 and plans to reduce water and electricity consumption in its manufacturing process. Intel has also released its "Environmental and Social Responsibility" program, which seeks to reduce its carbon footprint through smart manufacturing and material innovation.
Conclusion
In 2024, the semiconductor industry continues to thrive in technological innovation, market demand, and global competition. With the wide application of AI, 5G, electric vehicles, quantum computing and other technologies, the prospects of the semiconductor industry are full of challenges and opportunities. Whether it is process technology, material innovation, or the localization of the supply chain, the industry is constantly embracing new development opportunities. The continuous progress and industrial layout of semiconductor technology will profoundly affect the global scientific and technological development pattern in the next few years.
