In 2024, China's smart door lock market has undergone a profound change. According to data from Lotu Technology, the omni-channel sales of smart door locks in China will be 17.47 million sets in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 3.0%. This data reflects the complex pattern and development dilemma of the industry, and also reveals new opportunities and trends. China Exportsemi will interpret industry challenges and future development opportunities from the perspectives of market structure, online channel analysis, brand competition, and product innovation.
Market structure: the rise of the C-end and the decline of the B-side
One of the important changes in the smart door lock market in 2024 is the shift in channel structure. To C market (consumer-facing) accounted for more than half of sales for the first time, reaching 54.6%, an increase of 12 percentage points from 2023. This shift reflects the growing consumer demand for smart home products, which are gradually becoming the main force in the market. However, the rise of the C-end market corresponds to the decline of to B market (for enterprises). The sales volume of the B-end market decreased by 14.4% year-on-year, accounting for 44.1% of the overall market share.
Behind this change, it is mainly affected by the downturn in the real estate market. According to the data of Aowei Cloud Network, from January to September 2024, the planned construction area of residential buildings in 300 cities across the country decreased by 37% year-on-year, and the sales of newly built commercial housing also fell by 22.7%. This has directly led to a decline in the B-end demand for smart door locks, especially the shrinking demand for supporting real estate projects. With the downturn in the real estate industry, the B-end demand of the smart door lock market has been suppressed, and the overall market structure has undergone great changes.
The rise of online channels
Despite the decline in overall market sales, online channels have become an important growth point for the smart door lock industry. In 2024, the sales volume of smart door locks in China through online channels will reach 7.72 million sets, a year-on-year increase of 32.2%. Among them, traditional e-commerce platforms still dominate, accounting for nearly 75%, and a year-on-year increase of 34%. Especially in the fourth quarter, the increase was more than 70%.
The rapid growth of online channels is due to the promotion of e-commerce platforms and the change of consumers' shopping habits. The way consumers buy smart door locks has gradually shifted from offline retail to online shopping, and e-commerce platforms have become the preferred channel for consumers to buy smart door locks with their convenient shopping experience, price transparency and rich choices. This shift not only provides a broader market space for brands, but also drives the digital transformation of the entire industry.
Figure: Omni-channel sales share by brand in China's smart door lock online market in 2024
Brand competition and industry concentration increase
In terms of brand competition, Xiaomi, Dessmann, Kaadis and Haier will still occupy the top four positions in the online market in 2024, and the combined sales share (CR4) of these four brands will increase from 29.8% in 2023 to 36.8% in 2024. With more than 1.5 million units shipped, Xiaomi has successfully won the first place in the shipment volume of China's smart door lock market in 2024. This achievement not only reflects Xiaomi's leading position in the smart door lock market, but also shows its strong competitiveness in online retail.
Specifically, Xiaomi ranks first in both sales and sales of traditional e-commerce platforms, with a market share of more than 20%. This achievement shows that Xiaomi not only has a strong brand appeal in smart home products, but also successfully expands its market share through online channels. Its products have been widely recognized by consumers through continuous optimization of user experience, enhancement of intelligent functions, and precise online marketing.
At the same time, the market share of long-tail brands is gradually shrinking, and many brands that lack lasting competitiveness are beginning to withdraw from the market. Between 2023 and 2024, about 170 brands will exit the smart door lock industry. This phenomenon reflects the high demand for branding, technological innovation and user experience. Top brands have strengthened their market dominance by continuously optimizing product features, enhancing user experience, and expanding online channels.
Technological innovation and product upgrading
In 2024, the smart door lock industry has made significant progress in technological innovation. The wide application of biometrics has become a bright spot in the development of the market. According to Lotu Technology, the shipment of face recognition modules will exceed 6 million in 2024, and the shipment of finger vein recognition modules will be close to 2 million. These emerging technologies not only improve the security of products, but also greatly improve the consumer experience, promoting the transformation of smart door locks from a single access control device to a home security management platform.
In addition, the proportion of composite smart door locks in the market is also increasing rapidly. For example, the composite biometric technology combining face recognition and palm vein recognition is gradually favored by the market. In the first half of 2024, shipments of this type of composite smart door lock will reach 850,000 sets. This convergence of technologies not only satisfies consumers' dual needs for safety and convenience, but also brings new growth points to the industry.
In terms of product functions, more and more smart door locks are beginning to integrate more home intelligent functions, such as remote control, voice assistant integration, and linkage with other smart home devices. The addition of these innovations not only enhances the added value of smart door locks, but also promotes the integrated development of the smart home market.
Challenges and opportunities coexist
Although the smart door lock industry has made some progress in technological innovation and channel expansion, the market will still face many challenges in 2024. First of all, the slowdown in economic growth has affected consumers' spending power and willingness to buy, especially for the purchase of non-rigid products. Secondly, the industry competition is becoming increasingly fierce, the price war is becoming more and more intense, the market share of low-end smart door locks is expanding, and the proportion of low-end products below 1,000 yuan is increasing year by year. Although the price war has expanded the market size in the short term, in the long run, this trend is not conducive to the healthy development of the industry, which may lead to the stagnation of technological innovation and the decline of brand value.
However, there are also opportunities. With the increase in consumer interest in smart home products, smart door locks, as a key component of smart home systems, still have a broad market space. Especially with the continuous development of online channels, the purchase channels of smart door locks will be more diversified, and the popularity of products will be further improved. In addition, the penetration rate of smart door locks in overseas markets is still low, and the functional design is relatively backward, providing new business opportunities for Chinese enterprises.
Future outlook
According to Lotu Technology's forecast, the omni-channel sales volume of China's smart door lock market is expected to reach 18 million sets in 2025, a year-on-year increase of about 3%. This growth expectation shows that despite the many challenges faced by the market, with the continuous advancement of technological innovation and the continuous upgrading of consumer demand, the smart door lock industry will still maintain a certain growth momentum.
Enterprises need to continue to make efforts in technological innovation, brand building, market expansion, etc., continuously optimize product functions, enhance brand influence, and actively expand online channels to cope with future market competition and opportunities.
Conclusion
China's smart door lock market in 2024 presents a complex situation under the action of multiple factors. Despite the decline in overall sales in the market, factors such as the rise of online channels, Xiaomi's contrarian growth, and breakthroughs in technological innovation have injected new vitality into the future development of the industry. The smart door lock industry will continue to work hard in terms of technology, channels and brands to promote the overall development of the smart home market. In the future, with the continuous improvement of consumer demand and the advancement of smart home technology, the smart door lock market is still full of potential and will become the highlight of market growth in the next few years.
