Introduction: The 2nm process race has begun
As semiconductor technology gradually enters the era of 2-nanometer (nm) processes, the industry is becoming more and more competitive. Recently, it was reported that Nvidia and Qualcomm intend to transfer some 2nm chip foundry orders from TSMC to Samsung. The move has attracted widespread attention, as 2nm technology not only represents a new level of chip manufacturing, but also heralds far-reaching changes in artificial intelligence (AI), Internet of Things (IoT) and other fields. Can TSMC consolidate its leading position? Can Samsung take the opportunity to take the position? It has become the focus of attention in the industry. China Exportsemi tries to conduct in-depth analysis and discussion on these issues.
Capacity and cost: Samsung's new competitive opportunities
Samsung expects to complete test production of the 2nm process in the first quarter of 2025. This node highlights Samsung's sense of urgency in the layout of high-end processes. It is worth noting that the Japanese manufacturer Rapidus is also building a wafer factory in Chitose City, Hokkaido, and plans to achieve mass production of 2nm chips in 2027. The rapid changes in the global semiconductor landscape have intensified the possibility of technology races and price wars.
TSMC has significant advantages in process technology with years of accumulation, and the yield rate of its 2nm process trial production has exceeded 60%. However, high production costs also put pressure on its customers. According to reports, TSMC has a production cost of about $25,000 per 2nm wafer, while Samsung has a certain cost advantage with vertical integration and supply chain management. For cost-efficiency customers like Nvidia and Qualcomm, Samsung's appeal should not be underestimated.
Figure: TSMC vs Samsung, 2nm chip war
Technological breakthrough: the performance benefits of the 2nm process
The introduction of the 2nm process is an important milestone for the semiconductor industry. Compared with the 3nm process, the transistor density of 2nm is increased by about 15%, and the performance is increased by 15% at the same power consumption, while the power consumption is reduced by 24%-35% under the same performance conditions. These improvements are significant for smartphones, high-performance computing (HPC), IoT devices, and more, significantly improving product endurance and computing efficiency.
However, TSMC's capacity planning on the 2nm process has caused some customers to worry. Although TSMC plans to achieve mass production in 2025, the limited initial production capacity may cause some customers to find another way. Nvidia and Qualcomm's allocation of orders to Samsung is not only a diversification of supply chain risks, but also a tentative recognition of Samsung's technological strength.
Markets and Strategies: The Choices of Industry Giants
As TSMC's top customer, Apple has shown unwavering support for its technology. According to the news, Apple will use the A2 chip with the 2nm process for the first time in the iPhone 18 series in 2026. In the current competitive environment, Apple's support has undoubtedly injected a boost into TSMC. However, the choices of other companies show a trend towards diversification.
Behind Nvidia and Qualcomm's choice of Samsung, it is not only about cost, but also about trust in technology and adjustment of market strategy. In recent years, Samsung has made some progress in the research and development of the 3nm surround gate transistor (GAA) process, showing its determination to challenge TSMC.
Industry Trends: The Far-Reaching Impact of the 2nm Wars
From a global perspective, the competition in the 2nm process is no longer limited to the battle between TSMC and Samsung. Enterprises including Intel and Rapidus are also accelerating their deployment. Intel plans to launch 20A (2nm equivalent) in 2024 and is committed to regaining process leadership. Rapidus, on the other hand, plans to mass-produce 2nm chips in 2027 through a partnership with IBM. The addition of these emerging forces may further stir up the market landscape.
Analysis and outlook
Although TSMC still has an advantage in technology and market accumulation, the competitive environment it faces is very different from the past. Samsung is closing the gap through cost competitiveness and technological innovation, while the rise of other emerging players is making the market more complex.
If TSMC is to maintain its leading position, it needs to make improvements in the following areas:
1. Increase production capacity: Ensure timely fulfillment of customer order needs by expanding factories and optimizing processes.
2. Reduce costs: Optimize the manufacturing process and reduce the unit production cost of high-end process wafers.
3. Technological innovation: Continue to promote technological breakthroughs in 3nm and below processes and consolidate technical barriers.
For Samsung, the success or failure of the 2nm process not only affects the expansion of its wafer foundry market, but also affects the effectiveness of the entire group's industrial chain integration. If it can achieve a double breakthrough in technology and production capacity in the 2nm era, Samsung is expected to further challenge TSMC's market position.
Conclusion: Future Choices in Multi-Party Games
The 2nm chip war is unfolding around the world, and giants such as TSMC, Samsung, and Intel are all vying for the dominance of this process technology. The transfer of orders from Nvidia and Qualcomm to Samsung marks a significant change in the market landscape, but also shows that TSMC still needs to adapt to an increasingly complex competitive environment.
The future of the semiconductor market will depend on many factors such as technological innovation, cost optimization and customer relationship management. In this multi-party game, the mistakes or successes of any one company may profoundly affect the direction of the industry. With the gradual implementation of 2nm technology, the global semiconductor industry will usher in another reshuffle, and its impact may exceed any previous era.
