Today, the editor of China Exportsemi will try to present the market status quo in different countries and regions around the world through a "S-curve of electric vehicle adoption rate" (the picture is shared by social media netizens): Who is leading? Who's watching? Who's hesitating? Who is still hovering in place? The data in the chart shows that by 2024, the global BEV (battery electric vehicle) penetration rate has formed a clear "chain of contempt" structure. With a penetration rate of 15% at an inflection point, countries have been ruthlessly divided into "pioneer markets", "mainstream battlefields" and "marginal challengers" .
Among them, China has become the only country in Asia to enter the threshold of the "mainstream market" with a penetration rate of 27%. Japan and South Korea, which had long dominated technology and markets, were unexpectedly excluded from the mainstream. Emerging markets such as the Middle East and Southeast Asia are still on the verge of "early markets" and are looking for ways to break the situation.
Figure: Distribution of BEV adoption rates in different countries around the world
Ⅰ The "S-curve" stratification of the global BEV market: "35%" is the next watershed
Looking at the chart, this typical technology adoption life cycle curve divides the market into five groups: innovators (2.5%), early adopters (13.5%), early mainstream (34%), late mainstream (34%), and conservative slowers (16%).
15% and 35% are the two key thresholds:
- 15% penetration: Marks the transition of a market from "early adopters" to "early mainstream users".
- 35% Penetration: Seen as a mature starting point for the "mainstream market", i.e. the launch of the mass adoption phase.
According to the data in the figure, as of 2024:
Table: Breakdown of BEV market adoption rates by country
We can clearly see that China is the only country in Asia that has broken the 15% threshold and has entered the stage of "early mainstream users". However, technological powers such as Japan and South Korea have not yet crossed this dividing line of psychological and industrial significance.
Ⅱ The industrial logic of China's BEV breakthrough success: not only policy, but system
The reason why China has been able to achieve a breakthrough in BEV penetration rate is that, on the one hand, it has benefited from the policy guidance and subsidy promotion that has been the same for ten years, but at a deeper level, it has formed an independent ecology of "independent brand dominance + complete local supply chain + domestic demand pull".
Core Drivers:
1. Strong ability to integrate the industrial chain: From batteries, motors, electronic controls to vehicle manufacturing, companies such as NIO, Xpeng, BYD, and Li have mastered core technologies and have independent pricing and rapid iteration capabilities.
2. Brand-led demand upgrading: BYD, Tesla China, Xiaomi SU7 and other brands are blooming, and electrification is shifting from policy-driven to consumption-driven.
3. Going overseas drives a new curve: BYD and others have built factories and sales in Europe, Latin America, and Southeast Asia, and Chinese brands are exporting "domestic mainstream experience" to "overseas emerging markets".
What's more noteworthy is that the Chinese market's acceptance of intelligence is also significantly ahead, pushing electric vehicles into the next round of competition between intelligent cockpits and autonomous driving.
Ⅲ Why did Japan and South Korea "fall behind"? The electrification strategy conflicts with the conservative path
Japan and South Korea, as traditional automotive powerhouses, have been conservative in their BEV transition, betting on hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) and hydrogen energy for a long time.
Take Japan as an example:
- Toyota focuses on HEVs, and has been slow to fully deploy BEVs;
- At the policy level, the incentives for pure electric vehicles are relatively limited, and consumers are more concerned about fuel efficiency and vehicle life.
- The construction of charging infrastructure is relatively lagging behind, and the urban charging experience is still not friendly enough.
Although Hyundai-Kia is actively promoting the IONIQ series in South Korea, the overall penetration rate is still low, and industrial policies and consumer confidence still need to be further activated.
Japan and South Korea are still in the Visionary stage and have not yet completed the mental transition to mainstream consumers.
Ⅳ Southeast Asia and the Middle East: The potential is huge, but it is trapped before the "tipping point".
Southeast Asian Market:
- Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia and other countries are becoming the preferred targets for Chinese electric vehicle companies to go overseas;
- BYD, Great Wall, Chery and other companies have set up factories in the local area, and the policy side is also implementing tax exemption and car purchase subsidies;
- However, the overall market is still in the early stages of penetration below 5%, with middle-class purchasing power, charging infrastructure, and brand recognition being the three major obstacles.
Middle East Market:
- The UAE and Saudi Arabia are vigorously promoting the green transition through national strategies (e.g. Saudi Vision 2030);
- However, BEVs are still a luxury consumer and lack a strong incentive to replace fuel;
- Due to differences in climate, urbanization rate, infrastructure, etc., the Middle East is more likely to become a "high-end BEV testing ground for going overseas" first.
Both Southeast Asia and the Middle East have "latecomer advantages", but whether they can quickly cross the 15% threshold and form a "self-reinforcing" industrial ecology still needs to observe the synergy between local car companies and policy design.
5. Industry Enlightenment: What has the global BEV contempt chain reshaped?
This S-curve chart of electric vehicles is not only the ranking of market penetration data, but also the coordinate axis of the "redistribution of discourse power" in the global automotive industry
1. Electric vehicles are no longer just innovative experiments, but mainstream commodity battlefields;
2. Breaking the tipping point of 15% is from policy-driven to market-driven;
3. From penetration rate to industrial export rights, it is the core competition in the next stage.
For Chinese manufacturers, entering the mainstream market is only the first step, and the real challenge is how to move from "leading shipments" to global competitors with brand power, system power, and overseas sustainability.
For overseas market players and local policymakers, China's BEV model has become a comparison sample: how to support local companies and build a complete ecosystem is the key to breaking the "early adopter trap".
Conclusion: The global BEV competition is standing at a watershed, and China is reshaping the "mainstream definition".
The global "chain of contempt" for electric vehicles is being reordered. China's rapid breakthrough is not accidental; The lag between Japan and South Korea is the result of path dependence; Southeast Asia, the Middle East and other markets are facing a collective test of technological leap.
The next five years will be a decisive stage from "who does it early" to "who defines the mainstream".
