At the moment when the wave of intelligence in the automobile industry is surging, a mandatory national standard that is about to be implemented is quietly setting off huge waves, impacting the pattern and cognition of the entire industry. The new regulations, called "Technical Requirements and Test Methods for Automatic Emergency Braking System for Light Vehicles", are not only the improvement of the technical threshold, but also a deep torture of the development path of automobile intelligence.
Ⅰ The implementation of new regulations: a leap in automobile safety
The new regulations require M1 and N1 vehicles to be equipped with automatic emergency braking systems (AEBS), and expand the scope of application, increase the ability to identify vulnerable traffic participants such as pedestrians and bicycles, and introduce simulation test items. This marks a key step in automotive safety standards from passive protection to active intervention. Data shows that in 2023, more than 90% of traffic accidents due to driver error will be caused, and the intervention of AEBS systems is expected to significantly reduce this proportion. According to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, vehicles equipped with AEBS reduce rear-end collisions by 38 percent, fatal crashes by 20 to 25 percent, and injury by 25 to 30 percent. Behind this string of cold numbers are countless families broken by traffic accidents, and it is also a strong proof of the urgency of the implementation of the new regulations.
Figure: AEBS Mandatory Installation New Regulations
Ⅱ Reshaping the industrial pattern: a technological leap from 80,000 to 1 million
From entry-level models priced at 80,000 yuan to high-end algorithms worth millions, this is not only a technological leap, but also a deep reshaping of the industrial pattern. At present, the AEBS assembly rate of passenger cars in China only 56.5%, and the assembly rate of models below 80,000 yuan is even lower than 3%. After the implementation of the new regulations, the market size is expected to surge from 38 billion yuan in 2024 to 120 billion yuan in 2026. This huge market increment will promote the comprehensive upgrade of the three major modules of perception, decision-making, and execution.
At the perception layer, domestic millimeter-wave radar companies are on the rise. At present, the cost of domestic millimeter-wave radar products is about 30% lower than that of the international giant Bosch, and the products of many domestic suppliers have passed AEC-Q100 certification and achieved mass production. For example, the products of a domestic millimeter-wave radar company have been applied in the AEBS system of a car company, with an angular resolution of 0.5° and a detection distance of more than 200m, which is comparable to the international advanced level. At the decision-making level, the accuracy of the control algorithm is improved. The control algorithm of Hengrun-W has been installed in mass production models and can meet the ENCAP/CNCAP five-star standard. Its algorithm can calculate in real time according to various parameters such as vehicle speed, distance from the vehicle in front, pedestrian position, etc., and the decision-making response time is less than 100ms, which provides a strong guarantee for the safe driving of the vehicle. At the executive level, the wave of domestic substitution of braking systems is surging. With technological breakthroughs and cost advantages, the order volume of VIE Technology, Asia-Pacific Co., Ltd. and other enterprises is expected to grow explosively. VIE's Electronic Parking Brake (EPB) system has been installed by many car companies, and its braking energy recovery efficiency has reached 85%, which not only improves vehicle safety, but also contributes to energy conservation and emission reduction.
Ⅲ Investment opportunities and risks: ice and fire in a trillion-dollar market
For investors, the trillion-dollar market brought about by the new AEBS mandatory installation regulations is both an opportunity and a challenge. In terms of opportunities, enterprises in the relevant industrial chain will fully benefit. For example, Q&D Circuit, Baolong Technology, Huayu Automobile and other enterprises have a layout in AEBS-related fields. Baolong Technology's automotive sensor products have been applied to the AEBS system of many well-known car companies, and the accuracy of its sensors can reach ±0.5%, with high reliability, providing accurate data support for the vehicle's environmental perception.
However, the risks should not be overlooked. First, the risk of technical verification. The new regulations require that the pass rate of AEBS system simulation test must be ≥90%, which puts forward extremely high requirements for the R&D and testing capabilities of enterprises. If the measured data of the enterprise is not up to standard, it may lead to the loss of orders and even affect the market reputation of the enterprise. Secondly, cost control risk. Some enterprises account for more than 30% of accounts receivable, facing high cash flow pressure and bad debt risks. In the context of intensified market competition, how to effectively control costs while ensuring product quality is an urgent problem for enterprises to solve. Finally, external policy risks. The U.S. intends to restrict the export of AEBS core chips, which poses a potential threat to companies that rely on imported chips. Although companies such as Desay SV have laid out domestic chip alternatives in advance, the uncertainty of chip supply may still affect their profitability and development prospects.
Ⅳ The deep thinking of technology and society: tearing open the mask of intelligence
The implementation of the new AEBS regulations has shown us many hidden problems behind the intelligence of automobiles. From a technical point of view, although the AEBS system can reduce traffic accidents to a certain extent, it is not a panacea. For example, the performance of an AEBS system may be limited in complex road conditions and extreme weather conditions. According to a test of the performance of AEBS systems in rain and snow, the braking distance may increase by 20%-30% compared to normal weather, and the false response rate will also increase. This reminds us that the development of automotive intelligent technology cannot only rely on hardware stacking, but also needs in-depth innovation in algorithm optimization and sensor fusion.
From a social perspective, the implementation of the new AEBS regulations will redefine the human-machine trust relationship. With the introduction of autonomous driving technology, drivers have gradually changed from the leader of driving behavior to the supervisor of the system. However, this trust building does not happen overnight. In 2023, Huawei and Xpeng Motors will have a "debate" triggered by different understandings of AEBS, reflecting a crisis of public trust in automotive intelligent technology. Drivers may have doubts about the system's automatic intervention, fearing that the system's misjudgment will lead to more serious consequences. Therefore, while promoting AEBS technology, enterprises need to strengthen communication with consumers and improve public awareness and recognition of the technology.
In short, the implementation of the new AEBS mandatory installation regulations has brought unprecedented opportunities and challenges to China's automotive industry. It is not only an upgrade of automobile safety standards, but also an in-depth test of the intelligent development of automobiles. In this process, enterprises, investors and all parties in society need to jointly promote the healthy development of automotive intelligent technology with a more rational and objective attitude, and inject new vitality into road traffic safety and industrial development.
