Recently, the German government announced a new round of subsidies of billions of euros to the country's semiconductor industry, aiming to promote the development of cutting-edge technologies and modern production capacity. This policy not only injected strong impetus into the German semiconductor industry, but also released a signal of accelerated restructuring of the global semiconductor supply chain. Annika Einhorn, a spokeswoman for Germany's Ministry of Economy, noted that the funds would help chip companies develop "modern production capabilities that are well beyond the current state of technology."
However, delving into the motivation behind this phenomenon, we can find that the technology blockade and chip control in the United States are an important cause of this global semiconductor race. The geopolitical game, represented by the technology competition between China and the United States, has directly promoted the strategic investment of governments in the semiconductor industry. China Exportsemi will analyze this trend from a global perspective, discuss how technology blockade is reshaping the global landscape, the similarities and differences in the response strategies of various countries, and the far-reaching impact of this wave on the future of the industry.
Ⅰ the logic behind the semiconductor has become the strategic commanding heights
1.1 Technological blockade and "chip wars".
In recent years, the United States has imposed a series of stringent technology blockades and export controls on China's semiconductor industry. These include restricting the export of high-end chips and manufacturing equipment, forcing ASML, TSMC and other companies to cut off high-end technology cooperation with China. This strategy is not only aimed at curbing China's technological development, but also has a shock to the semiconductor supply chain of other countries, prompting the restructuring of supply chains and the localization of production around the world.
2. Geopolitical drive to prioritize security
Another side effect of the technology blockade is that it has exacerbated concerns about semiconductor security. The situation in which key technologies are controlled by others, especially in the fields of 5G communications, artificial intelligence and defense, has made countries realize the importance of independent and controllable semiconductors. Germany, Japan and other countries have tilted their policies towards local manufacturing, precisely out of consideration to reduce foreign dependence and ensure supply chain security.
Figure: The escalation of the "chip war": under the Sino-US technology game, the global semiconductor has entered the era of regionalization
3. The fission of globalization
One of the consequences of the technological blockade of the United States is the fission of the model of global cooperation. In the past, the semiconductor industry chain showed a pattern of high global division of labor: the United States was responsible for design, Japan supplied materials, and East Asian countries carried out manufacturing, packaging and testing. However, this model is now being dismantled by technology blockades, and countries have had to invest more in an integrated supply chain from R&D to production.
Ⅱ. Semiconductor strategies for major economies: different paths to technology blockade
2.1 Germany: The revival of Europe's "tech hub".
Germany's large-scale subsidy plan is part of the EU's overall strategy of "technological independence". Through the European Chips Act, the EU plans to increase the global semiconductor market share from 10% to 20% by 2030. As the core of Europe's semiconductor layout, Germany focuses on the following measures:
1. Attracting foreign investment: Encourage global giants such as TSMC and Intel to set up factories in Germany to reduce dependence on East Asia.
2. Support for local R&D: Expand financial support for local German companies such as Infineon to accelerate the development of new technologies.
3. Building regional synergies: Cooperate with the Netherlands, France and other countries to focus on overcoming technical problems in the field of advanced process and equipment manufacturing.
2.2 The United States: the initiator and double-edged sword holder of the technology blockade
While implementing a technological blockade, the United States is also vigorously promoting the return of local semiconductor production. For example, the CHIPS and Science Act allocates $52.7 billion to build advanced process plants. Intel, TSMC and Samsung's large-scale investment in the United States has become its signature achievement. However, it should be noted that the U.S. technology blockade strategy has also imposed invisible costs on its own supply chains:
1. The potential of the Chinese market is limited, and U.S. chip companies have lost an important source of revenue.
2. The reconfiguration of the supply chain for the production of high-end equipment increases operating costs and time.
2.3 China: Self-reliance and international cooperation go hand in hand
As the main target of the U.S. technology blockade, China's strategic investment in the semiconductor industry continues to increase. In recent years, China has supported leading local enterprises (such as SMIC and YMTC) to achieve technological breakthroughs through state-level special funds, while accelerating the layout of the entire industry chain in the fields of chip design, manufacturing, packaging and testing. In the face of the blockade, China has adopted two main strategies:
1. Self-reliance: Concentrate resources on key process technologies such as 14nm and 7nm, and strive to break through bottlenecks.
2. International cooperation: In-depth layout of the "Belt and Road" countries, expand technical exchanges and market cooperation with Southeast Asia and the Middle East.
2.4 Japan and South Korea: New Challenges for Traditional Powers
1. Japan has lured TSMC to factories with massive subsidies, while strengthening its strengths in the supply of materials such as wafers and photoresists. However, its overall competitiveness in the manufacturing process is still limited.
2. South Korea, led by Samsung and SK hynix, continues to lead the field of memory chips, and has formulated an ambitious "semiconductor super strategy", planning to invest $450 billion over 10 years to consolidate its global market position.
2.5 Taiwan: A stabilizer for global manufacturing hubs
Taiwan is an important hub for global semiconductor manufacturing, with TSMC as the core, and its industrial policy priorities include:
1. Securing global leadership: TSMC announced a $100 billion investment to expand its 3nm and 2nm advanced process production capacity, while actively deploying overseas factories in the United States and Japan.
2. Government-to-business cooperation: The Taiwanese government actively maintains the stability of the semiconductor industry chain and maintains close cooperation with major customers (such as Apple and NVIDIA).
3. Supply chain diversification: Diversify risks by setting up factories while strengthening local supply capabilities in chip materials and equipment.
2.6 France and the Netherlands: the twin engines of the European Union's semiconductor alliance
France and the Netherlands also play a key role in the EU's semiconductor strategy:
1. Relying on its strong scientific research system and policy support, France focuses on the development of chip design and artificial intelligence chips. The French government has announced that it will invest 6.8 billion euros in the "France 2030 Plan" for semiconductors and related fields.
2. The Netherlands has become an irreplaceable link with ASML's global monopoly in the field of lithography machines. The Dutch government has worked closely with ASML to focus on further breakthroughs in EUV (extreme ultraviolet lithography) technology and expand its supply chain influence.
Ⅲ. The far-reaching impact of technological blockade: the opposition between globalization and regionalization
3.1 The fragmentation of global cooperation
The technological blockade of the United States has directly promoted the emergence of "technical barriers" and "market barriers" in the semiconductor supply chain. This has led to the transformation of global cooperation from a wide-area division of labor model to a regionalized and centralized one. The U.S. is trying to tighten its grip on the technological highlands through the "Chip 4 Alliance," while China is seeking to establish a circle of technological cooperation in emerging markets.
3.2 The formation of a regionalization pattern
Driven by technological blockade and capital, the regionalization pattern has accelerated:
1. East Asia: Maintain manufacturing strengths, but gradually shift some capacity to Southeast Asia to diversify risks.
2. Europe: Positioning as a high-end chip manufacturing and equipment R&D center, especially in the field of automotive chips.
3. North America: Focus on high-end chip design and a small number of advanced process production.
Ⅳ. Editor's Opinion: Is the race spawned by the technological blockade sustainable?
1. Short-term benefits and long-term worries coexist
The technology blockade has spurred a wave of global semiconductor investment, and countries have improved the competitiveness of the industry in the short term, but in the long run, it may also lead to:
1. Excessive competition and overcapacity: Multiple countries compete for the advanced process market at the same time, which can lead to vicious competition.
2. Widening technology divide: Some developing countries may be marginalized due to a lack of financial and technical support.
3. Environmental and resource burdens: Semiconductor manufacturing requires a lot of water, electricity, and rare materials, and it is worth watching whether countries can balance economic growth and sustainable development.
2. Will the U.S. lockdown strategy backfire?
Although the United States has tried to maintain its technological hegemony through technological blockade, this strategy is not necessarily "foolproof". Lockdown measures could prompt targeted countries to accelerate their own innovation, and in the long run, the technological lead of the United States and its allies could be gradually eroded.
Ⅴ. Conclusion: What is the winner of the competition to reshape the rules?
In the view of the editor of China Exportsemi, the technology blockade of the United States and the global semiconductor investment boom triggered by it are reshaping the global technology map. In the short term, the subsidy policies of countries such as Germany will significantly enhance local competitiveness; In the long run, the ultimate winners of the race will be those countries that can find a balance between technological innovation, international cooperation and sustainable development.
Germany's subsidy program offers new opportunities for Europe and adds new variables to the global semiconductor competitive landscape. In the future, whether countries can maintain their willingness to cooperate in the competition will determine the healthy development of the global semiconductor industry and the direction of technological progress.
