A few days ago, a number of professional data research institutions released the ranking data of the global mobile phone market shipment volume in the first quarter of 2025, and China Exportsemi integrated a number of data to sort out the "Top 10 Global Mobile Phone Market Shipments in 2025Q1". This article will take this as a starting point, focus on the performance and landscape evolution of the top 10 manufacturers, and analyze the strategic gains and losses and future challenges of each manufacturer based on the shipment, market share and year-on-year growth rate, so as to provide professional insights for industry audiences.
First, the overall market structure: differentiated competition under micro-growth
In Q1 2025, the total global smartphone shipments will be about 296.9 million units, a year-on-year increase of 0.2%. This near-flat growth rate continues the "weak normal" of the past few quarters: the saturation of demand in developed markets and the slowdown in growth in emerging markets have made it difficult to support the overall rapid expansion. In this environment, the competition for the share of leading manufacturers is more intense, and "the strong are always strong" and "survival in the cracks" coexist.
Figure: Top 10 global smartphone market shipments in 2025Q1
The stagnation of the growth rate of the broader market means that the incremental market is limited, and manufacturers can only achieve growth by grabbing the share of others. The head Samsung and Apple continue to consolidate their advantages: Samsung benefited from the sinking of the low-end product portfolio and channels, with slight growth; With its high-end models and service ecosystem, Apple has performed well in high growth. The combined share of the two is nearly 39%, approaching the edge of "oligarchs".
The midstream camp is more divided. Xiaomi retains advantages in core emerging markets such as India and Southeast Asia; vivo achieved a year-on-year increase of 7.1% with experience upgrades such as photography and fast charging; OPPO/OnePlus fell in both shipments and share due to the lower-than-expected high-end transformation and competition in domestic channels.
Downstream "seventh camp" manufacturers are facing greater pressure. Transsion had risen rapidly in the African market, but shipments plummeted by 22.5% due to demand saturation and increased competition. Although Honor continued to make efforts after becoming independent, it still recorded a 5% decline due to the lack of innovation and limited channel resources. realme has also declined due to product homogenization and channel congestion.
It is worth noting that Huawei has sprung up: after being listed as "other", it has achieved explosive growth of 28% year-on-year and regained the eighth place. The recovery of its Kirin chips, the hot sales of the high-end Mate/P series, and the large-scale subsidy channel policy jointly drove the upward trend against the trend.
Second, Huawei: a "dark horse" that rebounds against the trend
Huawei shipped 15.75 million units in Q1, with a share of 5.3%, +28% year-on-year. This remarkable achievement can be summarized as follows:
1. Kirin chips are back
Huawei's self-developed Kirin X series once again leads the way in terms of performance and power consumption, benchmarking the Qualcomm Snapdragon 8 series and taking the lead in mass production of SoCs with integrated 5G baseband, bringing both signal and battery life improvements and stimulating the demand for phone replacement.
2. Perfect high-end product matrix
The Mate X folding screen, the P60 Ultra imaging flagship, and the new mid-range nova series jointly cover high, mid, and entry price points. In particular, the Mate X series has won the favor of high-end users due to its differentiated form, increasing the overall ASP (average selling price) and stable shipments.
3. Channel and ecological subsidies
Huawei has stepped up channel support and provided peer-to-peer subsidies to core markets. With the help of Huawei's smart selection and Honor's channel sharing, end-to-end supply chain collaboration is realized. In addition, the Harmony OS 3.0 ecosystem is further enriched, and smart home, in-vehicle and other scenarios are linked to enhance user stickiness.
4. Overseas market "filling".
In some markets in Europe and the Middle East, Huawei has rebuilt its brand influence through online direct sales and cross-border e-commerce models, and attracted some Android users.
Huawei's contrarian rebound may continue to erode the share of competitors in the same price segment in the short term; In the long run, whether it can continue to maintain chip supply and ecological innovation will determine whether it can return to the top three in the world.
Third, midstream manufacturers with both challenges and opportunities
1. Xiaomi: Seeking progress while maintaining stability, we need to make up for shortcomings
Xiaomi shipped 41.9 million units in Q1, with a share of 14.1%, +2.7% year-on-year. The success factors are:
- Diversified market layout: India has the second largest market share, and the market penetration rate in Europe has increased;
- Product price-performance advantage: Redmi series continues to seize the entry-level and mid-range market;
- IoT ecosystem linkage: Smart bracelets, TVs, laptops, etc. can be purchased collaboratively to enhance brand stickiness.
But there are also shortcomings: the sales of the high-end series (Mi 11/12) after the price increase did not meet expectations; Overseas channels rely on online, and offline channels are insufficient. In the future, it is necessary to increase the weight of flagship innovation and channel sinking in order to continue to maintain the status of the "second camp".
2. OPPO/vivo: Transformation pains and breakthrough direction
OPPO (including OnePlus) shipped 23 million units in Q1, –7.3%; vivo shipped 22.6 million units, +7.1%. Both face common challenges:
- High-end transformation pains: Although the Find X series and OnePlus series have technical highlights, they lack the ability to compete with Apple's and Samsung's high-end camps;
- Homogeneous competition: taking photos and fast charging have become standard, and the differentiated selling point is weak;
- Rising channel costs: Offline reinvestment has brought short-term shipments, but has compressed profit margins.
The breakthrough direction is to strengthen software and AI capabilities (such as self-developed image ISPs and AI assistants); explore new forms (folding screens, dual screens) and new ecosystems (automotive, wearable); Optimize your global channel mix.
Fourth, downstream manufacturers: what is the way out?
Transsion, Honor, realme, Lenovo-Motorola and other "seventh echelon" manufacturers, with a total share of nearly 27%. Where:
- Transsion: It needs to seek new growth outside of Africa, such as localized operations in Southeast Asia and South Asia;
- Honor: Leverage Huawei's residual temperature and channel resources to strengthen brand differentiation, such as focusing on campuses, women and other segments;
- realme: reinvent product positioning, highlight performance or design innovation, and avoid falling into the "low price race";
- Lenovo-Motorola: Rely on Moto's classic brand DNA to carry out differentiated marketing in the Americas and Europe.
These manufacturers should avoid simple price wars and turn to technological innovation, brand segmentation and ecological linkage to gain a solid "niche market" position.
Fifth, future prospects
1. High-end and folding screens have become a new battlefield
The penetration rate of folding screens is moving from 1% to 3%, and is expected to exceed 5% in the next two years. Samsung, Huawei, Xiaomi, etc. will continue to increase their weight, and the supply chain links such as screens, hinges, and materials will usher in a new round of investment boom.
2. AI and software-defined experiences
From taking photos to system interactions, AI technology is becoming the core of vendor differentiation. Whoever can form a closed loop in local AI inference, cloud collaboration, and multi-device linkage will win the next wave of user reputation.
3. Increasing regional market fragmentation
India, Southeast Asia, and Africa are still the key to increasing shipments, and localized supply chains and channels, payment and credit services will become the key to seizing the market. Developed markets are shifting to high-end and value-added services, and the 5G+ application ecosystem will bring new demands for battery life and security.
4. Ecosystem and service monetization
After the hardware dividend ebbed, smart terminal manufacturers must accelerate the layout of services and ecosystems, such as app store distribution, financial payment, content subscription, Internet of Vehicles and smart home, to form a diversified revenue structure of hardware, software and services.
Conclusion
The micro-growth pattern in Q1 of 2025 is not only a challenge, but also the eve of the industry reshuffle. Leading manufacturers need to hold their ground and continue to innovate, while midstream and downstream manufacturers need to find their right position in segmentation and differentiation. Folding screens, AI applications and ecological services will become the focus of competition in the next stage. For all participants, only the deep coupling of technology and ecology can win a bigger pie in the limited incremental market.
*Disclaimer: The rankings and data come from multiple professional market research and analysis institutions (such as Canalys, TechInsights, Counterpoint, etc.), and may have certain errors with the real situation due to different statistical caliber and time nodes, and are for reference only.
