At the robot industry chain exhibition held in Shenzhen recently, an exoskeleton robot with a price of less than 10,000 yuan became the focus, and there were crowds of people in front of the booth and an endless stream of experiencers. According to the exhibitor, the product has been sold out in domestic and overseas markets. It is understood that the market size will only be 418 million US dollars in 2023, but it is expected to exceed 11.4 billion US dollars by 2032, with a compound annual growth rate of 44.45%. Behind this explosive growth is the triple drive of medical rehabilitation demand, industrial scene substitution and the rise of the consumer market.
Ⅰ Demand explosion: three major scenarios drive growth
1. Medical rehabilitation: Aging creates rigid demand
The global aging trend provides a broad stage for exoskeleton robots. With more than 310 million people over the age of 60 in China, there is a surge in demand for rehabilitation exoskeletons for patients with strokes and spinal cord injuries. In 2023, the medical rehabilitation sector will account for 58% of the global exoskeleton market. Taking Vishee Medical's XWalker lower limb rehabilitation exoskeleton as an example, it has entered the hospital procurement catalogue and served more than 620,000 people in total. It is estimated that by 2030, the penetration rate of lower extremity exoskeletons in the stroke rehabilitation market will jump from 17% in 2025 to 39%.
2. Industrial Scenario: A Dual Solution to Efficiency and Labor Shortages
In industries such as logistics and automobile manufacturing, exoskeletons are becoming a powerful tool to solve labor shortages and improve efficiency. After deploying 1,200 exoskeletons on BMW's production line in Germany, the force on workers' waists was reduced by 40% and the efficiency was increased by 25%. The Guardian XO industrial exoskeleton from Sarcos in the United States can carry 90 kg and has been used in logistics and warehousing. After the industrialization base built by China RobotCT Technology in Wuxi reaches production, it is expected that the annual output value will exceed 200 million yuan, serving automobile manufacturing, electronic assembly and other fields.
3. Consumer-level market: the threshold of 10,000 yuan has broken through and detonated demand
2025 is seen as a "game-breaking year" for consumer-grade exoskeletons. As the price drops to less than 10,000 yuan, the demand for mountaineering, housework, fitness and other scenarios has surged. Wandercraft's exoskeleton device will serve as a torchbearer for the Paris 2024 Olympic Games, and Archaeopteryx's Mo/Go™ powered exoskeleton pants in collaboration with Skip will last up to 3 hours, promoting the application of outdoor scenes. Hangzhou RobotCT Technology's EasyGo series has pushed the price to 2,500 yuan, aiming at the elderly and outdoor sports market.
Figure: Exoskeleton robots are selling well
Ⅱ China's industry: policy and technology are two-wheel driven
In 2023, the scale of China's exoskeleton robot market will reach 1.39 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.2%, and it is expected to exceed 4.2 billion yuan in 2025, with a compound growth rate of more than 50% in the next five years. At the policy level, the "14th Five-Year Plan for the Development of Medical Equipment Industry" clearly supports rehabilitation robots, and many places include exoskeleton treatment in medical insurance. On the technical side, Chinese companies reduce costs through carbon fiber materials and domestic core components, such as RobotCT Technology's bionic joint module, which is only 1/10 of the cost of similar international products.
Local companies performed well: Fourier Intelligence achieved 83% installed capacity growth in the primary healthcare market through a cost-effective strategy; Beijing AI-robotics Technology focuses on neurological rehabilitation, and its products have entered more than 300 hospitals across the country, with sales increasing by 120% year-on-year in 2023.
Ⅲ Technological breakthroughs and industry challenges coexist
Key technical progress:
1. Material innovation: The proportion of carbon fiber composite materials will increase from 18% in 2020 to 37% in 2025, and the weight of products will be reduced by 40%.
2. AI and brain-computer interface: Boston Dynamics' medical exoskeleton has a 92% accuracy rate for motor intent recognition, and the response delay is reduced to 5 milliseconds.
3. Flexible drive: The pneumatic muscle-driven exoskeleton developed by RobotCT Technology realizes more natural gait training.
Core Challenges:
1. Cost and certification: Medical-grade exoskeletons cost up to $80,000, with an average certification period of 28 months, and the new EU regulations are further extended to 14 months.
2. Range and comfort: Existing products have an average battery life of 3-8 hours, which needs to be improved by solid-state batteries and energy recovery systems.
Ⅳ Future trends: technology integration and ecological construction
In 2025, the global shipment of consumer-grade exoskeletons is expected to exceed 1 million units, and the price will drop to below 5,000 yuan. Policies and capital continue to increase: China's 14th Five-Year Plan special subsidies reached 1.2 billion yuan; In 2025, the total financing in the global exoskeleton field is expected to be 3.4 billion US dollars, and brain-computer interfaces and lightweight materials have become investment hotspots.
There is a significant trend of technology integration: AI realizes personalized rehabilitation program customization through cloud data management; The modular design, such as Ekso Bionics' EVO series, supports rapid switching between medical and industrial scenarios and reduces procurement costs.
