In the surging technology investment boom in recent years, GSR Ventures' strategic adjustment has attracted widespread attention. Its large-scale withdrawal from the humanoid robot track and the increase in the field of underwater robots is not only a simple investment turn, but also a re-evaluation of the development trend of the entire robot industry. China Exportsemi will analyze the logic behind GSR Ventures' decision from multiple dimensions such as technology development, business prospects, and investment logic, and discuss its far-reaching impact on the industry.
1. Humanoid robots: cold thinking of reality in the frenzy of capital
In the past three years, humanoid robots have become the star track of the technology investment community. The layout of leading companies such as OpenAI and Tesla has driven the high sentiment of global technology capital. In 2023, Tesla released a prototype of the Optimus humanoid robot, claiming that it will be applied to multiple scenarios such as factories and homes. This move has accelerated the heat of the industry and attracted a large number of start-ups and capital to chase into the game.
In the Chinese market, according to IT Orange statistics, in the first half of 2023 alone, there will be more than 30 humanoid robot-related financing events, with a financing amount of more than 3 billion yuan. While the capital frenzy also conceals the uncertainties faced by the initial development of the industry.
Zhu Xiaohu, a partner at GSR Ventures, publicly stated in early 2024 that it had "withdrawn in batches" from the humanoid robot project because "the technical difficulty is much higher than the market imagination and the commercialization path is vague". He pointed out that most humanoid robots on the market are still in the proof-of-concept or prototype stage, and there is still a long way to go before they can be truly scaled up and have clear commercial value.
This is not alarmist. According to the Worldwide Robotics Spending Guide released by the International Data Corporation (IDC), although the overall robot market continues to grow, by the end of 2023, humanoid robots accounted for less than 3% of the global robot market, far lower than industrial robots (more than 50%) and service robots (about 30%). What's more, the current high manufacturing cost of humanoid robots, often hundreds of thousands of dollars, seriously restricts the possibility of large-scale commercial use.
In addition, in practical application scenarios, the substitutability of humanoid robots is also prominent. In industrial production lines, embodiment is not as good as high-efficiency actuators such as SCARA or Delta; In the field of family services, its intelligence level is far from being able to replace nannies or escorts, but is often questioned by users because of "showmanship".
Figure: The underlying logic behind GSR Ventures' quit of humanoid robots
Of course, there are also voices that are optimistic about the prospects of humanoid robots. Zhang Ying of Matrix Partners once publicly said: Humanoid robots are the ultimate form of interaction between artificial intelligence and entities, representing the commanding heights of long-term technology. This view does reflect the technological frontier position of humanoid robots at the intersection of multiple disciplines such as perception, control, and reasoning. However, from a short-term investment return perspective, the uncertainty has led many institutions to be conservative.
2. Underwater robots: low-key and pragmatic potential stocks
While gradually withdrawing from the humanoid robot track, GSR Ventures has quietly shifted its focus to a low-key but promising subdivision - underwater robots. In April 2024, Suzhou Shihang Intelligent Technology Co., Ltd. completed an angel+ round and Pre-A round of financing totaling 50 million yuan, with GSR Ventures as one of its core investors.
Remotely Operated Vehicle (ROV) or Autonomous Underwater Vehicle (AUV) is widely used in offshore oil and gas development, submarine cable laying, underwater archaeology, environmental monitoring, national defense and security, and other fields. With the increasing global attention to the development of marine resources and environmental protection, underwater robots are ushering in a golden age of rapid growth.
According to a report released by MarketsandMarkets, the global underwater robot market size reached $3.2 billion in 2023 and is expected to increase to $6.4 billion by 2028, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14.5%. Among them, the growth of the Chinese market is particularly rapid, thanks to the strategic drive of "maritime power" and the acceleration of the trend of domestic substitution.
Taking World Aviation Intelligence as an example, the company's business covers the R&D and manufacturing of surface and underwater unmanned equipment, and has established six independent and controllable technology systems, including power system, control system, sensing system, navigation system, waterproof sealing system, and power deployment system, which can cover the whole water operation capacity from 0 meters to 10,000 meters. This technical reserve makes it highly adaptable and competitive in scenarios such as subsea facility detection, emergency rescue, and complex water exploration.
At the same time, underwater robots are becoming a key tool to solve the problem of decommissioning old marine facilities. According to the International Maritime Organization (IMO) and IHS Markit, by the end of 2022, there were more than 12,000 offshore platforms in service worldwide, of which nearly 2,800 platforms, 18,500 wells and 80,000 kilometers of submarine pipelines are expected to be retired or refurbished by 2030. The traditional way of relying on divers has been difficult to meet the dual requirements of efficiency and safety, and the alternative value of underwater robots has become more and more prominent.
3. The logic of GSR Ventures: return to hard technology and value investment
From "escaping" from humanoid robots to betting on underwater robots, GSR Ventures' shift shows that its investment philosophy is undergoing a shift from "following the herd" to "structural value investing" strategic upgrades.
Zhu Xiaohu stressed on many occasions that GSR Ventures has always adhered to the principle that "hard technology is the core of China's growth in the next decade". In his opinion, although humanoid robots are the most topical sub-tracks, they "lack a clear monetization path to B or to C in the short term"; The direction of underwater robots with practical application scenarios, rigid needs and policy support is more in line with the investment standard of "controllable risks and predictable returns".
In addition, in recent years, GSR Ventures has gradually expanded its layout in the fields of intelligent manufacturing, aerospace science and technology, and new energy equipment. Underwater robots happen to have multiple attributes such as automation, intelligence, and adaptation to complex working conditions, which is not only a typical representative of hard technology, but also has a certain strategic value for national defense and industrial security. This kind of track with "industrial scarcity + technical barriers" is naturally in line with its investment preferences.
4. Industry enlightenment: say goodbye to fantasy and return to rationality
GSR Ventures' case provides an important sample for reflection for the entire investment community. The valuation of technology-based projects should not only be based on the "sense of story", but also based on the requirements of the real scenario and the maturity of the technology. Capital should remain calm when the heat comes, rather than blindly chasing the waves.
For the robotics industry, humanoid robots and underwater robots are not opposites. On the contrary, they have a high degree of synergy in technical dimensions such as intelligent perception, bionic control, and system integration. In the future, companies with cross-track collaborative R&D capabilities are more likely to stand out. For example, some AI algorithms for humanoid robot motion planning are being tried to be applied to autonomous underwater navigation systems. The pressure-resistant and sealed structure of the underwater robot can also be used to enable humanoid robots to be deployed in complex environments.
5. Conclusion: The era of diversification of the robot industry has arrived
GSR Ventures' strategic switch confirms the trend of diversified transformation of the robotics industry. Although humanoid robots are still long-term ideals, they still need time to precipitate in the short term; Underwater robots, agricultural robots, industrial collaborative robots and other subdivisions are becoming new favorites of capital by virtue of their practicability, technical feasibility and policy support.
The robot world of the future is no longer a utopia of a single path to "humanoid form", but a pragmatic roadmap of multi-scene, multi-form, and cross-integration. For industry participants, it will be more critical to grasp the application scenarios and strengthen the construction of the technology core than to "rub the hot spots".
Before the next technology cycle arrives, we may all need a little calm.
