According to Counterpoint Research's latest Global EV Battery Tracker, the global new installed battery capacity for new energy vehicles (EVs) in 2024 will increase by 22% year-on-year. This growth was mainly driven by the rising penetration of new energy vehicles in key markets and the changing mix of vehicle types.
It is reported that in December 2024, China's new energy vehicle sales increased by 37.5% year-on-year, and in the domestic market, the domestic retail sales of new energy vehicles were 10.899 million, which is higher than the growth rate of 5 percentage points compared with 2023. In addition, the annual retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 47.6%, an increase of 12 percentage points year-on-year, and the penetration rate exceeded 50% for five consecutive months in the second half of the year.
In terms of market share, Chinese battery manufacturers are particularly prominent, controlling more than 70% of global battery installations. Globally, CATL has ranked first in the global power battery loading volume for seven consecutive years by virtue of its advantages in technology, production capacity and customer resources. In the first 10 months of 2024, 252.8GWh of power battery capacity will be installed, and it alone will account for 36.8% of the global market share. From the perspective of overseas markets, the loading volume in the first 10 months reached 76.6GWh, a year-on-year increase of 7.8%, and the market share reached 26.4%, surpassing the Korean manufacturer LG Energy Solution. This is mainly due to its wide international customer base, with overseas car brands such as Tesla, BMW, Mercedes-Benz and Volkswagen all matching CATL batteries for their electric models. In addition, CATL is actively exploring new overseas markets, such as Brazil, Thailand, Israel and Australia.
Figure: Global new energy vehicle battery installed capacity will increase by 22% in 2024
BYD, on the other hand, has adopted a "dual-track" approach, targeting both pure electric and plug-in hybrid tracks, and its products have been welcomed by the global market with their diversified model portfolio and highly competitive prices. In the first 10 months of 2024, BYD's power battery loading volume in overseas markets surged to 11.7GWh, although it is far behind CATL, but it achieved a year-on-year growth of 142.9%, and its market share rose to 4.0% from 1.9% in the same period last year. The rise of Chinese manufacturers stems not only from the vigorous development of the domestic new energy vehicle market - China, as the world's largest new energy vehicle market, provides huge domestic demand support for local battery companies, but also inseparable from their active international layout, such as the construction of production bases and supply chain systems in Europe, Southeast Asia and other places to better serve global customers.
In addition, the report notes that tariffs are having a significant impact on the global battery supply chain. Some countries have imposed tariffs on imported cells and related components to protect their local industries, prompting companies to readjust their supply chains. In response to tariff barriers, some Chinese battery manufacturers have accelerated the pace of building overseas factories, reducing costs and avoiding trade risks through localized production, while further promoting the diversification of the global battery supply chain. This transformation of the supply chain will not only help improve the global competitiveness of enterprises, but also have a profound impact on the pattern of the global new energy vehicle industry in the future.
Overall, in 2024, the global new energy vehicle battery market will show a trend of Chinese manufacturers dominating the market and accelerating the adjustment of the supply chain under the dual effect of demand growth and policy changes. With the continuous development of the new energy vehicle industry, the competition in the battery market will become more fierce in the future, and the optimization and innovation of the supply chain will also become the focus of enterprises.
