In June 2025, the global semiconductor industry continued to be highly active, with leading companies making frequent moves in technology research and development, geopolitical layout and market strategy, including in-depth cooperation between multinational giants, capacity adjustment under geopolitical influence, and product iteration for export restrictions. The following analyzes the recent industry focus from three dimensions: technical cooperation, regional layout, and market response.
Ⅰ Technical cooperation: multinational giants have joined forces to break through the storage bottleneck
Intel's partnership with SoftBank has been a bright spot in the technology space in recent times. According to Tom's Hardware, the two companies have formed a joint venture to develop stacked DRAM alternatives to ease the supply of high-bandwidth memory (HBM). Combining Intel's advanced packaging process with patented technology in Japan, the technology is currently in prototype development and is scheduled to be commercialized by 2030.
The partnership comes against the backdrop of HBM's explosive demand for AI servers, which has led to global supply chain straines. Intel's Foveros packaging technology enables high-density interconnects on chip stacks, while Japan's patent accumulation in the field of memory materials provides support for performance optimization. SoftBank not only invests in R&D, but also plans to secure priority supply rights through its Vision Fund, with the intention of taking a head start in the next generation of AI infrastructure.
Ⅱ Geographical layout: TSMC's establishment of factories in the Middle East and the game of U.S. export policy
TSMC's overseas expansion plan has once again attracted geopolitical attention. It is reported that TSMC is in talks with Steve Witkoff, the US White House and Middle East envoy, to build a chip foundry in the UAE that is comparable in size to the Arizona factory. There are multiple considerations behind this location:
1. Avoiding geopolitical risks: As a global trade hub, the Middle East can radiate to Europe, Africa and Asian markets, reducing the impact of political fluctuations in a single region on the supply chain;
2. Energy advantages: The UAE has a stable supply of clean energy (such as nuclear energy), which meets TSMC's demand for low-carbon manufacturing;
3. U.S. strategic endorsement: By cooperating with the U.S. envoy, TSMC can not only respond to the layout of the "Quadripartite Alliance of Chips", but also avoid being involved in a direct conflict in the Sino-US technology game.
It is worth noting that TSMC's Arizona plant has been slow to progress due to cost overruns and technology transfer disputes, and the Middle East project, if implemented, could become a key step in diversifying its overseas production capacity.
Figure: Global semiconductor industry dynamics: technical cooperation, geopolitical layout and market response (Source: Tom's hardware)
Ⅲ Market response: Nvidia pushes China's special chips, and Intel seeks architecture iteration
Under the export restriction policy, Nvidia and Intel have adopted different marketing strategies:
(1) NVIDIA: Customized chips break through compliance barriers
In response to the U.S. ban on AI chips in China, Nvidia is developing B30 chips based on the Blackwell architecture as an alternative to the banned H20 chips. It is reported that the B30 will retain multi-GPU expansion capabilities, and may use the ConnectX-8 SuperNIC network controller (instead of the traditional NVLink interconnection) to meet the demand for high-performance computing in the Chinese market. This design is in line with the U.S. Department of Commerce's policy of "limiting computing power but retaining basic computing", while maintaining market share in China. Currently, the chip has entered the testing phase and is expected to be available by the end of 2025.
(2) Intel: Architecture iteration saves the market decline
Intel, on the other hand, is facing weak sales of Arrow Lake processors. Despite positioning itself as a next-generation architecture in the AI era, Arrow Lake has received a slower response than expected due to compatibility issues and energy efficiency controversy, and some AI customers have even switched to older generation Raptor Lake processors. In order to turn the tide, Intel plans to launch an Arrow Lake-SRefresh version, and according to the leaked information in the W880 motherboard manual, the new processor will continue to use the 125W TDP design, and may only retain the K/KF high-performance model, improving competitiveness by optimizing the cache and AI instruction set. This strategy is designed to strengthen its position in the data center and high-end PC markets in response to the continued onslaught of the AMD Ryzen family.
Ⅳ Industry enlightenment: the balance between technological autonomy and globalization
Recent developments highlight two major trends in the semiconductor industry:
1. "Curve survival" under technology decoupling: Whether it is NVIDIA's compliant chips or Intel's cross-ocean cooperation with SoftBank, both reflect the flexibility of enterprises to seek technology implementation under political interference, but the geopolitical barriers of core technologies (such as HBM and advanced processes) are still intensifying.
2. Multi-polarization of production capacity layout: TSMC's production capacity in the Middle East, the United States, and Taiwan is scattered, marking the transformation of the industry from "centralized manufacturing" to "regional hub" to cope with trade frictions and supply chain security challenges.
For China's semiconductor industry, these developments are both a warning - dependence on external aspects of key technologies may lead to limited development, but also opportunities: the continuous release of AI computing power demand and alternative space in global capacity restructuring provide a market window for local companies to make breakthroughs in storage, equipment, materials and other fields.
