On February 6, 2025, Hartmut Nevin, head of Google's quantum computing division, revealed in an interview with Reuters that Google plans to launch a commercial application of quantum computing in the next five years. This ambitious goal is a direct slap in the face to Nvidia founder Jensen Huang's prediction that quantum computing applications could take 20 years*. This announcement not only instills new confidence in the future development of quantum computing, but also arouses widespread attention from the global science and technology, investment and academic communities.
Google's confident source: the technological breakthrough of the Willow chip
Google's self-confidence is not unfounded. In December 2024, Google released a new generation of quantum chips, Willow. The chip uses 105 qubits and achieves industry-leading performance in system benchmarks such as quantum error correction and random circuit sampling. The Willow chip's T1 time (the time a qubit remains in an excited state) is close to 100 microseconds, a five-fold improvement over the previous generation. In addition, Willow is able to complete a standard calculation in less than five minutes, while traditional supercomputers can complete the same task well beyond the age of the universe.
These technological advances mark Google's leading position in quantum computing. Hartmut Nevin, head of Google's Quantum AI Division, said: "We believe that the Willow family of chips will help us achieve the first quantum computing that goes beyond classical computing and has practical application value. Google is also actively inviting researchers and engineers from around the world to join the testing of the Willow chip, pushing quantum computing technology forward to real-world applications.
Prospects for quantum computing: from materials science to artificial intelligence
The potential applications of quantum computing are wide-ranging, and Google plans to apply it to several key areas, such as materials science, drug discovery, and new energy exploration. Specifically, quantum computing has the potential to develop more efficient battery technologies for electric vehicles, accelerate the development of new drugs, and help discover new forms of energy. These technological breakthroughs will have a profound impact on the global technological and economic landscape. More efficient battery technology, in particular, will drive the adoption of electric vehicles and reduce global dependence on fossil fuels; The research and development of new drugs can help significantly improve human health.
In addition, the combination of quantum computing and artificial intelligence is also becoming a hot topic in the scientific and technological community. The unique parallel processing capability of quantum computing can provide more powerful computing support for AI algorithms, further promoting the in-depth application and transformation of AI in multiple fields. Sundar Pichai, Google's CEO, has even suggested that quantum computing clusters could be built in space in the future, with the aim of exploring more efficient ways to comput. The idea, supported by Tesla founder Elon Musk, marks the enormous potential of quantum computing in the future of technology.
Figure: Google plans to commercialize quantum computing in 5 years
Market Prospects and Challenges: The Road to Commercialization of Quantum Computing
According to market data analyzed by the International Quantum Technology Association (ICVTA) and Caprius (K), the future of the quantum computing industry is promising, and the global market size is expected to exceed $800 billion by 2035. The global quantum computing market reached $4.7 billion in 2023 and is expected to grow to $5.5 billion in 2024 and $6.1 billion in 2025. The rapid growth of this market has attracted the continued attention of tech giants including Google, Microsoft and IBM.
However, the commercialization of quantum computing still faces many challenges. First of all, the stability of qubits remains unresolved. Qubits are highly susceptible to environmental noise and interference, leading to computational errors, which requires the development of more efficient quantum error correction mechanisms. Second, the hardware cost of quantum computing remains high, limiting its large-scale adoption. In addition, although many quantum algorithms have made some theoretical progress, the practical general quantum algorithms are still in their infancy and further breakthroughs are needed.
Competition and divergent views in the industry: Microsoft, IBM's response
Google's quantum computing initiative not only demonstrates its technological prowess in this cutting-edge field, but also intensifies competition among global tech giants. Microsoft is also actively deploying quantum computing, planning to launch the world's "most powerful quantum computer", and has made considerable progress in quantum algorithms; IBM's Quantum Heron processors, meanwhile, excel in qubit manipulation and coherence time, and plans to launch several new quantum computing platforms in the coming years.
The competition among these companies has driven the rapid development of quantum computing technology, but it has also triggered violent fluctuations in the capital market. In 2024, quantum computing-related stocks ushered in a sharp rise after Google and IBM announced major breakthroughs. However, Huang's "20-year curse" view has caused the quantum computing sector to lose about $8 billion in market value in a short period of time, showing that the market is highly sensitive to the uncertainty of the future development of quantum computing.
The possibility of breaking the "curse": technological progress and market maturity
Google's plan to commercialize quantum computing within five years directly challenges Huang's prediction that quantum computing applications will take at least 20 years. While the technical challenges of quantum computing remain enormous, Google has laid a solid foundation for this initiative with its technological breakthrough on the Willow chip. In fact, as quantum computing hardware and algorithms continue to mature, rapid technological advancements are expected to enable quantum computing to enter the stage of commercial application in the next few years.
However, to achieve this goal, Google still needs to overcome a series of technical challenges, including qubit stability, quantum algorithm innovation, and high cost. In addition, the continued R&D pressure from competitors such as Microsoft and IBM had also added uncertainty to Google's plans to commercialize quantum computing. The development of quantum computing, in addition to relying on the technological innovation of major enterprises, also requires the support of government policies and the improvement of industry standards.
Conclusion: The future of quantum computing is full of opportunities and challenges
Google's five-year commercial plan for quantum computing not only demonstrates its ambitions in the field, but also injects new vitality into the future of quantum computing technology. Despite the technical difficulties and market uncertainties, quantum computing is a revolutionary technology, and its huge potential and application prospects have made it the focus of attention of the global technology and investment community. In the next five years, the field of quantum computing will be full of opportunities and challenges, and Google's plan will undoubtedly be an important driving force for the development of the industry.
It remains to be seen whether Google will be able to break the "20-year curse" and successfully commercialize. However, with the continuous breakthrough of quantum technology and the gradual maturity of the market, quantum computing may be commercialized in specific fields in the near future. The future of quantum computing is worth looking forward to for each and every one of us.
