The advent of quantum computing has provided unprecedented possibilities for solving complex scientific problems and advancing technological frontiers. Google's latest quantum chip, "Willow", has once again brought this field into the public eye. By completing a task in less than 5 minutes that would take a supercomputer "10^25" years to complete, Willow not only demonstrates the potential of quantum computing, but also opens new doors for future technology applications. China Exportsemi will deeply analyze the impact and potential of Willow from the perspectives of technical details, expert comments, test benchmarks, practical application scenarios and comparison of traditional computers.
Ⅰ Technical details: the realization of quantum superiority
1. Breakthrough design of qubits
The "Willow" quantum chip uses 105 qubits, which is the largest design in a commercial quantum chip today. An increase in the number of qubits does not equate to a linear increase in computing power, but rather an exponential increase. For example, a 70-qubit system is capable of handling about (10^{21}) states, while 105 qubits can scale to (10^{31}) state spaces.
2. Significant optimization of error rate
The constant challenge for quantum computing is error correction and error suppression. Willow improved the hardware design and programming optimization, improving the efficiency of the error correction mechanism by 3 times, while reducing the error rate of a single operation to less than 0.1%. This allows complex calculations to remain highly accurate across multiple iterations.
3. Enhanced coherence time
The T1 time (the coherence time of quantum state storage) jumped from 20 microseconds to 100 microseconds in the previous generation of chips. This means that the performance stability of quantum computers in a single operation is significantly improved, which provides the possibility of long-term and high-complexity operations.
Figure: Google's Willow quantum chip: 5 minutes to solve the 10^25-year problem of a supercomputer
Ⅱ Expert Commentary: Cold Thinking Behind Technological Breakthroughs
Alan Woodward, a quantum computing expert at the University of Surrey in the United Kingdom, said that Willow's breakthrough results set the benchmark for quantum computing, but the current quantum superiority is still limited to specific mission scenarios. For example, Willow's performance is based on random circuit sampling tests, a task that is optimized for quantum computers rather than the strengths of traditional computers. "It remains to be seen whether quantum chips will be able to achieve the same level of disruptive impact in the field of general-purpose computing," Woodward emphasized.”
Ⅲ Test Benchmark: Verification of Extreme Computing Power
In the experiment, Willow completed a random circuit sampling task in just 4 minutes and 50 seconds. The complexity of this task lies in the efficient simulation of disordered quantum states and the verification of results. In contrast, Fugaku, the most powerful supercomputer at present, has an estimated time of 10^25 years to complete the mission, which is equivalent to 100 billion times the age of the Earth, even at peak performance (442 PFLOPS).
This test protocol provides strong evidence for the advantages of quantum computers. However, it also exposes the limitations of current quantum computing: these tasks are less required in real-world scenarios and are more used for technical proof-of-concept.
Ⅳ Practical use cases: the future of quantum computing
Although "Willow" has demonstrated great theoretical computing power, it will take time to implement practical applications. Here are some potentially important use cases for quantum computing:
1. Drug discovery and molecular simulation
Quantum computers outperform traditional computers in molecular simulations. For example, in the design of anti-cancer drugs, quantum computing can significantly accelerate the screening of drug candidates by simulating intermolecular interactions with high accuracy. An IBM experiment showed that quantum computing is nearly 100 times more accurate than traditional methods when simulating benzene molecules.
2. Optimize problem solving
Complex optimization issues, such as supply chain scheduling and portfolio optimization, are prevalent in the logistics and financial industries. Early research from Google has shown that quantum algorithms can reduce the time for partial optimization tasks from weeks to hours.
3. Quantum Cryptography and Security
The powerful computing power of quantum computing also poses a threat to traditional encryption algorithms. In particular, the large number factorization method based on RSA, quantum computing can easily crack the 2048-bit key that is commonly used today. This has forced global technology companies to accelerate research on quantum computing-resistant cryptography.
4. Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning
The parallelism of quantum computing is expected to significantly improve the training speed of AI algorithms. For example, in large language models, such as ChatGPT, quantum technology enables faster model optimization and larger-scale parameter training.
Ⅴ Comparison with Traditional Computers: Coexistence or Replacement?
Quantum computing is not a direct replacement for traditional computers, but rather an efficient tool for specific problems. Here are the main differences:
- How the data is processed
Whereas classical computers use binary (0 or 1), quantum computers use superposition states (both 0 and 1 at the same time), which allows the latter to process multiple states at the same time.
- Applicable task types
Traditional computers are suitable for general-purpose tasks, such as daily office work and multimedia processing; Quantum computing, on the other hand, excels in highly complex scientific and engineering calculations.
- Energy efficiency and hardware limitations
Traditional computers are limited by Moore's Law, and the increase in computing power is gradually slowing down, while quantum computing theoretically has the potential for breakthrough growth. However, quantum computing hardware still requires extremely low temperatures (close to absolute zero), which limits its commercialization.
Ⅵ Data-driven deep thinking
To increase the intuitive understanding of the impact of quantum computing, we might as well analyze its potential contribution to the economy. A McKinsey report predicts that the market for quantum computing-related technologies will reach $1 trillion by 2035, with optimization and simulation accounting for the largest share at nearly 45%. In addition, there are currently more than 300 start-ups around the world focusing on the development of hardware and software for quantum computing, with a total financing of more than $4 billion.
Ⅶ Conclusion: Future prospects for quantum computing
The introduction of Google's Willow chip has once again pushed the boundaries of quantum computing, achieving key breakthroughs in both performance and hardware design. However, this does not mean that quantum computing is ready to change the world on a massive scale. In the short term, it will serve more of a complement to traditional computing for difficult tasks in specific domains.
Future quantum computers need to make progress in the following three areas:
1. Algorithm and software development: Specialized algorithms for practical problems are still insufficient.
2. Hardware stability: improve coherence time and environmental adaptability.
3. Commercial application exploration: from laboratory breakthroughs to actual production scenarios.
The real inflection point of quantum computing may be 10 years away, but the emergence of the Willow chip is undoubtedly an important step towards this inflection point. We are witnessing the future of technology, and the future is accelerating.
