In the context of the increasing labor shortage in the world, the advent of humanoid robots is gradually becoming an important means to solve this problem. For example, humanoid robots are designed to work seamlessly together in a human work environment with two-legged walking and five-fingered dexterous hands, without the need for large-scale infrastructure modifications. For example, the introduction of humanoid robots at the HDKSOE shipyard in South Korea can complete welding and repair tasks in a narrow cabin, overcoming space constraints that are difficult to cover with traditional robotic arms. China's UBTECH's Walker S1 robot uses swarm intelligence technology to achieve multi-scene collaborative operation in automobile factories, with a 25% increase in handling speed and a quality inspection accuracy rate of over 99%. In the next few years, with technological breakthroughs and business models continue to evolve, the market demand for humanoid robots will continue to grow. It is predicted that by 2030, global shipments of humanoid robots are expected to reach 38,000 units. With large-scale production and supply chain localization, the cost of humanoid robots continues to decline. The price of Unitree G1 robot is only 99,000 yuan, and the payback period of a single machine to replace one worker is about 1.2 years; Tesla plans to reduce the cost of Optimus to $20,000, which is close to what small and medium-sized businesses can afford. In the long run, the robot's 24-hour operation and zero welfare cost can significantly reduce labor dependence, such as Tesla's Shanghai factory if Optimus is fully deployed, the annual labor cost can be saved by more than 1 billion yuan.
Technology-driven: Embodied intelligence accelerates the automatization of robots
With the vigorous development of the new generation of artificial intelligence technology represented by ChatGPT, Embodied Intelligence has become the focus of attention in the industry. This technology system integrates the key capabilities of "brain" and "cerebellum", giving the robot stronger environmental perception, task understanding and autonomous decision-making ability, making it evolve from an executive tool to an intelligent individual with complex behavior patterns, and significantly improving the operation efficiency and adaptability of humanoid robots in multiple scenarios.
Figure: 2027-2030 global humanoid robot shipment forecast (unit: 10,000 units)
Application Evolution: From Industry to Space
The application path of humanoid robots shows a trend of "B first and then C, from shallow to deep". In the initial stage (2025-2030), it will take the lead in commercialization in subdivided scenarios such as industrial manufacturing, security inspection, logistics and distribution, service guidance, and disaster relief.
In the medium term (2030-2040), as the technology becomes more mature and the cost is gradually reduced, robots will evolve from a dedicated type to a general type, and widely enter the field of personal families, undertaking tasks such as housekeeping services, health care, and emotional companionship, and truly moving towards public life.
In the long-term outlook (2040-2050), humanoid robots are expected to go out of the earth and undertake high-risk and high-complexity tasks such as space operations, space exploration, and even space junk cleanup, and become the right-hand man of human exploration of outer space.
Industrialization progress: the era of mass production is accelerating
At present, the mass production trend of humanoid robots has begun to emerge, and many companies around the world have started the industrialization process:
Overseas Representative Enterprises:
1. Tesla: It plans to start mass production of humanoid robots in 2026;
2. Figure: Its Figure 02 robot has entered the BMW factory for testing;
3. 1X Technologies (Norway): The wheeled humanoid robot developed by 1X Technologies has entered the field of security services to explore commercial applications.
Chinese Enterprise Camp:
1. UBTECH: The products have entered Dongfeng Liuzhou, Geely Automobile and other factories for training, and are expected to achieve small-scale delivery by the end of 2024;
2. Fourier Intelligence: It will start selling its GR-1 robot in 2023 and has now achieved small batch shipments;
3. AgiBot: It is expected that the shipment volume will reach about 300 units in 2024;
4. Dataa Robotics: It is planned to achieve mass production in 2025.
Looking to the future: a golden decade under the resonance of multiple forces
With the rapid iteration of core technologies, the gradual improvement of the industrial chain and the continuous maturity of the legal supervision system, humanoid robots are entering the fast lane of development. From filling the labor gap to expanding the boundaries of human capabilities, its potential is gradually being unleashed, or it will usher in a tipping point of commercialization around 2030.
Related:
Insight into the 2025 Blue Book on Humanoid Robotics Industry Development (1)
Insight into the 2025 Blue Book on Humanoid Robotics Industry Development (2)
Insight into the 2025 Blue Book on Humanoid Robotics Industry Development (3)
Insight into the 2025 Blue Book on Humanoid Robotics Industry Development (4)
