In recent years, solid-state batteries, as the "new favorite" in the field of new energy, were once pinned on high hopes. Due to their significant safety and energy density advantages, solid-state batteries are expected to replace traditional liquid lithium batteries and become the "next generation" power source in new energy vehicles, consumer electronics, aerospace and other fields. Especially in the context of the acceleration of the global energy transition and electrification, solid-state batteries have become a hot spot for many enterprises and research institutions to compete for research and development. However, although many companies and media claim that the commercialization of solid-state batteries is "within reach", in reality, the large-scale application of solid-state batteries still faces various technical and market challenges. So, how far are we from commercializing solid-state batteries? Will it really break through the bottleneck and usher in an explosion? China Exportsemi tries to analyze these problems and provide you with a one-side perspective.
1. The technical bottleneck of solid-state batteries
The core advantages of solid-state batteries are reflected in their superior energy density and safety. Theoretically, the energy density of solid-state batteries can reach 500Wh/kg, far exceeding the 300Wh/kg of traditional liquid lithium batteries. However, despite these alluring advantages, the technical issues of solid-state batteries remain the biggest obstacle in their commercialization process.
1. 1 Solid-solid interface problems
The biggest difference between solid-state batteries and traditional lithium batteries is the electrolyte. Solid-state batteries use a solid-state electrolyte, while traditional lithium batteries use a liquid electrolyte. The solid-solid interface of solid-state batteries is much more complex than the solid-liquid interface, which makes their ion conduction efficiency low. The performance of solid-state batteries is heavily dependent on the interface contact and stability between the solid-state electrolyte and the electrode material. At present, many solid-state electrolyte materials (such as sulfides and oxides) are prone to interfacial separation or poor contact under high temperature and high-pressure conditions, resulting in reduced cell efficiency and even performance degradation.
Figure: Comparison of the structure of lithium-ion batteries and all-solid-state batteries
1.2 Ionic conductivity issues
Ionic conductivity is another major bottleneck that affects the performance of solid-state batteries. Most current solid-state electrolytes have lower ionic conductivity than liquid electrolytes, especially at low temperatures, which greatly reduces the performance of solid-state batteries. The low ionic conductivity of solid-state electrolytes makes solid-state batteries unable to compete with liquid batteries in terms of charge-discharge efficiency and rate. In order to achieve efficient charging and discharging, solid-state batteries need to transport large amounts of ions in a short period of time, and current solid-state electrolytes still have a lot of room for improvement in this regard.
1.3 Lithium dendrites
The growth of lithium dendrites is particularly problematic in solid-state batteries. Although the lithium metal anode has an extremely high energy density, during the charging process, lithium dendrites are easy to grow inside the battery, resulting in a short circuit, which may cause a fire or explosion in severe cases. While some companies have proposed solutions, for example by employing different types of solid-state electrolytes and designing advanced battery structures, the lithium dendrite issue remains a key constraint on the safety and long-term stability of solid-state batteries.
Figure: Lithium dendrites remain a key constraint on the safety and long-term stability of solid-state batteries
1.4 Manufacturing process and cost issues
The manufacturing process of solid-state batteries is much more complex than that of traditional liquid batteries, and the production process needs to be carried out under high temperature and high-pressure conditions, and at the same time, the equipment requirements are also higher. At present, the production cost of solid-state batteries is extremely high, mainly due to the large investment in production equipment and the technical difficulty. The production equipment of solid-state batteries requires high-precision material handling and manufacturing technology, which undoubtedly increases the overall cost of R&D and production. The high cost of production is the fundamental reason why most of the current solid-state battery technologies are difficult to produce and apply on a large scale.
2. the current situation of the market: semi-solid-state batteries first, all-solid-state batteries to be broken through, global competition is fierce
The commercialization of solid-state batteries is still slowly advancing, but semi-solid-state batteries have made some breakthroughs. Semi-solid-state batteries combine solid-state and liquid electrolytes, which can effectively solve the problems of ionic conductivity and manufacturing process of all-solid-state batteries, with high energy density and better safety. Domestic companies such as Qingtao Energy and Weilan New Energy have achieved mass production of semi-solid-state batteries, and the battery energy density has reached 368Wh/kg and 360Wh/kg respectively, and has made significant progress.
However, the commercialization of all-solid-state batteries still faces a number of technical difficulties. Although Toyota, Samsung, CATL and other companies have proposed mass production plans and made some progress in research and development, the commercial use of all-solid-state batteries is still far away. Current technical bottlenecks include the choice of solid electrolyte material, the contact between the solid electrolyte and the electrode material, and the high cost of the production process. How to break through these barriers will determine whether all-solid-state batteries can successfully enter the market.
Globally, enterprises and research institutions are actively deploying the field of solid-state batteries to compete for the future market. Domestic companies such as CATL and BYD have made initial progress in the research and development of semi-solid-state batteries, especially in battery energy density and cost control. CATL plans to achieve small-scale production of all-solid-state batteries in 2027, while BYD expects to achieve the first mass production in 2028.
Internationally, Toyota plans to start mass production of all-solid-state batteries in 2027, relying on new materials and processes to balance battery performance and cost. Companies such as Samsung, Panasonic, and SKOn are also actively engaged in research and development to solve the stability problem of solid-state electrolyte materials and enhance the technology of battery management systems.
Despite fierce global competition, the key to the commercialization of all-solid-state batteries lies in technological breakthroughs, cost control, and production capacity improvements. At present, semi-solid-state batteries, as a transitional solution, are filling the unsolved technical gap of all-solid-state batteries. It is expected that as the technology continues to mature, all-solid-state batteries will gradually become commercialized in the next few years.
3. Market prospects: a critical period for the next five years
According to the forecast of EVTank, an industry research institution, global solid-state battery shipments will reach 614.1GWh by 2030, accounting for about 10% of the global battery market. At the same time, a report by the China Business Industry Research Institute pointed out that the global solid-state battery penetration rate will be only 0.1% in 2023, and it is expected that solid-state battery technology will occupy a certain share of the market by 2030. However, to achieve this, a fundamental breakthrough in the technology and cost of solid-state batteries must be achieved.
Industry experts generally believe that 2027 and 2030 are the key nodes for the commercialization of solid-state battery technology. In 2027, it may become the starting point for small-scale verification of all-solid-state batteries, and in 2030, it is expected to usher in a real industrialization explosion period. If technological breakthroughs can be achieved within this time, solid-state batteries may be applied on a large scale in many fields such as new energy vehicles, consumer electronics, and aerospace, promoting the further development of the new energy industry.
4. Policy support: an "accelerator" in global competition
As solid-state battery technology is increasingly recognized as a key technology to solve energy storage and security problems, governments around the world have introduced policies to promote the R&D and industrialization of solid-state battery technology. The United States, the European Union, Japan and other countries and regions issued relevant policies as early as 2018 to support the development of the solid-state battery industry. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has listed solid-state batteries as a key technology research and development area for the future and has provided substantial financial support. The European Union has introduced a "clean energy" policy to encourage companies to invest in the research and development of solid-state batteries, especially in the field of electric vehicles.
The Chinese government has also actively promoted the development of the solid-state battery industry, and relevant policies have played a positive role in promoting the energy transition and reducing dependence on traditional energy sources. For example, the Chinese government's supportive policies in the field of new energy vehicles and financial subsidies for solid-state battery research and development have laid the foundation for the breakthrough and commercialization of solid-state battery technology.
5. Conclusion: When will the bubble burst, solid-state batteries still need technological breakthroughs and cost control
As a next-generation energy storage technology, solid-state batteries still have challenges in their commercialization, despite their great market potential. Judging from the current technical bottlenecks and production costs, the commercialization of solid-state batteries is still in its infancy, and there is still a long way to go before it can be truly applied on a large scale. However, with advances in materials science, manufacturing processes, and battery management systems, technological breakthroughs in solid-state batteries are not out of reach.
In the next five years, the solid-state battery market may usher in a critical explosion period. 2027 and 2030 may be a watershed year for industrialization, when the commercialization of solid-state batteries will have a profound impact on new energy vehicles, consumer electronics and other related industries. Although solid-state batteries have not yet broken through the bottleneck, their technological development prospects are still worth looking forward to.
