At a time when artificial intelligence and robotics are constantly evolving, Tesla has once again attracted great attention from the global industry with its impactful actions. At the beginning of 2025, Tesla Bot (numbered "Optimus") The team embarked on an unprecedented expansion, opening up around 80 positions globally across five functional categories: AI & Robotics, Manufacturing & Production, Engineering & Information Technology, Design, Environmental Health & Safety, and more. Among them, more than 66% of the positions are focused on AI and robot development, which clearly sends a signal that Tesla is accelerating the productization and commercialization of general-purpose humanoid robots.
Under the trend of intelligent transformation of the global manufacturing industry, Tesla's humanoid robot plan is not only a technical experiment, but a deep industrial layout aimed at opening up a trillion-level market space.
Ⅰ Annual production of 500,000 units: Musk's "mass production declaration"
Tesla's humanoid robot Optimus, which debuted in 2021, was initially seen as a "gimmick" by the market, but a demo video released at the end of 2023 shows that there has been a clear breakthrough in motion control systems, flexible joints and gripping capabilities. Musk said at the 2024 shareholders' meeting: "We expect to produce about 10,000 to 12,000 robot parts in 2025 and achieve the goal of 5,000 complete machines off the assembly line." By 2026, this number will increase to 50,000 to 100,000 units, and in 2027, the company will challenge its annual production capacity of 500,000 units.”
The speed and scale of this program far exceed the production capacity of the current mainstream humanoid robot manufacturers. According to IEEE Spectrum and the International Federation of Robotics (IFR), the global shipment of humanoid robots in 2023 is less than 10,000 units. If Tesla completes its goal as scheduled, it will complete a tenfold jump in production capacity within three years and become the world's largest manufacturer of humanoid robots.
Figure: Three-year production capacity of 500,000 units: The strategic logic behind the great expansion of Tesla's robotics team
Ⅱ Technology Engine: From Autonomous Driving to Simulated Reinforcement Learning
Tesla's rapid mass production plan for humanoid robots is inseparable from the technical assets it has accumulated in the field of autonomous driving.
1. AI Model Transfer and Reinforcement Learning Simulation Training:
Optimus Prime uses Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) as the main algorithm architecture. Agents are trained to perform tasks in a virtual simulation environment, and their behavior strategies are continuously optimized through a reward and punishment mechanism. This training method can significantly reduce real-world testing costs and security risks, and accelerate iteration efficiency. With 22 degrees of freedom (DOF), which is close to the 27 DOF of the human hand, Optimus Prime has been able to complete basic industrial operations such as battery handling and sorting, and parts picking.
2. Perception Systems and Computing Platforms:
Tesla Optimus Prime follows the FSD (Full Self-Driving) vision system framework, and its multi-eye vision sensor and neural network processing chip have strong scene understanding and path planning capabilities. This enables the robot to autonomously identify terrain, avoid obstacles, and perform complex path tasks. In addition, the chip platform may use Tesla Dojo or NVIDIA Orin to support massively parallel inference and training.
3. Control and Iterative Ability:
Tesla's software team has mature Over-the-Air (OTA) update capabilities, and can complete model iteration and remote deployment every week. For robots, this means faster function optimization cycles and lower maintenance costs, providing a realistic path for large-scale deployment.
Ⅲ Challenge: The difficult leap from "show-off" to industrial practicality
Although Tesla continues to make progress in robotics technology, it still faces many challenges before it can truly break through the "demo" stage and achieve large-scale commercial implementation.
1. Compared to Boston Dynamics, there is still a gap between practicality and flexibility:
Take Boston Dynamics' Atlas as an example, the robot has been able to complete highly dynamic actions such as running, jumping, rolling, and jumping boxes, and is good at navigating in complex terrain. At present, Tesla Optimus Prime mainly focuses on "handling and coffee distribution" in the factory as its core task, and its dynamic capabilities are still insufficient. Musk emphasized: "Optimus Prime is not for dancing, it is for work. "However, in the future, robots will still need to take into account flexibility and safety in multiple scenarios such as construction, medical care, and disaster relief.
2. Engineering Challenges of Mass Manufacturing:
While we have a lot of experience in automotive manufacturing, we face different engineering and supply chain challenges in mass production of robots. For example, Optimus Prime involves core components such as high-precision reducers, servo motors, and 3D vision sensors, and the global supply capacity and localization replacement rate of these components are still under pressure. How to build a stable and cost-controllable supply chain of robot parts is one of the key factors that determine its large-scale delivery.
3. Quality Control and Safety Standards:
When humanoid robots enter industrial and life scenarios, they will face more complex safety requirements for human-computer interaction. For example, the American National Standards Institute (ANSI) and the International Organization for Standardization (ISO) have strict regulations on the operating torque and downtime response time of collaborative robots (Cobots). Tesla needs to gradually establish a complete safety certification system for the uses and scenarios of its robots.
Pictured: Tesla robot parts
Ⅳ Market prospects: multi-scene imagination of industry + space + household
Tesla's ultimate goal on the robotics track isn't limited to factory automation. Musk has publicly stated: "In the future, every family may have an Optimus Prime, just as people have a washing machine or a microwave today."
1. Verification of the implementation within the factory:
According to the official video released by Tesla, the first batch of Optimus Prime has been tested in Tesla's factories for repetitive tasks such as parts handling and automatic distribution. This provides a real-world use scenario for the robot to land, which helps to iterate quickly.
2. Special Environmental Scenarios:
Optimus Prime is also expected to enter the field of hazardous environments such as nuclear energy, electric power, and chemical industry in the future. According to IFR data, global industrial robot shipments will reach 531,000 units in 2022, a year-on-year increase of 31%, of which a large amount of demand is concentrated in industries that require high-intensity and high-precision operations. If Optimus Prime can achieve low-cost and pan-scenario deployment, it will reshape the existing labor structure.
3. Space Exploration Vision:
As the CEO of SpaceX, Musk proposed as early as 2021 that Optimus Prime could participate in the future Mars migration program, from resource transportation to operations in the space station, which are potential uses. While still a long-term vision, this cross-border integration gives Tesla a broader strategic ceiling.
Ⅴ Commercialization Path: How to Benchmark Traditional Giants
At present, the global industrial robot market pattern is stable. Fanuc, Yaskawa, ABB, KUKA and other traditional "Big Four" have long-term accumulation in technology cultivation, service network and industry customization capabilities. In order for Tesla to break through the fierce competition, it needs to form differentiation in the following points:
- Price and mass production advantages: If Tesla can control its costs to the $20,000-30,000 level (compared to more than $100,000 for the Atlas), it will be very attractive in the market.
- System integration capability: Through collaboration with Tesla's vehicle factory and energy department, a closed-loop intelligent manufacturing system is built to realize the demonstration effect of "self-use and verification" of robots.
- Openness of the software ecosystem: Whether to open APIs and SDKs to allow third-party developers to expand functional scenarios will determine whether the ecosystem can grow rapidly.
Ⅵ Conclusion: Can humanoid robots be redefined by Tesla like electric vehicles?
The production capacity of 500,000 units in three years is not only a radical production line goal, but also a declaration of Tesla's intention to reconstruct the structure of the human labor force with "manufacturing speed + AI capabilities".
Just as the Model S reshaped consumers' perception of electric vehicles, Optimus Prime may be making people rethink the boundaries of human-machine collaboration in the near future. From AI algorithms to supply chain integration, from factory pilots to multi-scenario implementation, Tesla's robotics strategy is a challenging and ambitious gamble.
In the next few years, will the global robot industry usher in double leap of "electrification" and "human-like intelligence" because of Tesla? It is worth continuing to observe in the industry.
