According to TrendForce, the global AI server market is expected to be worth $298 billion by 2025, up from $205 billion in 2024. This growing trend highlights the importance of AI servers in the global server market.
AI server market growth trend in 2025
Market share: AI servers will account for more than 70% of the overall server market, further strengthening its dominant position in the industry. As the demand continues to increase, the application scenarios of AI servers are also expanding to cover more fields.
Shipment growth: AI server shipments will grow by 46% annually in 2024, driven by increasing demand for Hopper-on-chip systems from server OEMs and CSP customers in the U.S. and China. It is estimated that in 2025, the shipment of AI servers will increase by about 28%, accounting for more than 15% of the total server shipments.
Second, the layout of technology giants in the field of AI servers
NVIDIA: As a core chip supplier in the field of AI servers, NVIDIA will launch its next-generation Blackwell platform chip in 2025, further consolidating its leadership position in the high-end GPU market. In addition, Nvidia's GB200 servers are expected to start small-scale shipments in December 2024, which will bring more momentum to the AI server market.
Google vs. AWS: In addition to NVIDIA, major cloud service providers (CSPs) are also accelerating the design and production of in-house AI chips. In 2024, Google is already leading the way in AI chip shipments within CSP, while AWS shipments are expected to grow significantly, reaching more than 200%. In 2025, AWS's internal AI chip shipments are expected to grow by more than 70% year-over-year, and its Trainium chips will continue to power AI applications in AWS's public cloud infrastructure and e-commerce platforms.
Hon Hai Technology: As the world's leading electronic manufacturing service provider, Hon Hai Technology is also actively deploying in the field of AI servers. Its chairman Liu Yangwei expects that the company's AI server shipments in 2025 will exceed that of 2024, and plans to accelerate the market layout, especially in the production of the upcoming NVIDIA GB200 server.
Figure: AI server shipments will grow by more than 28% in 2025, and HBM 12hi mass production yield improvement will be the focus
The focus is on improving the yield rate of HBM 12hi in mass production
The importance of HBM 12hi: As the demand for high-performance computing and big data processing power in AI servers increases, the optimization of memory bandwidth and storage performance becomes a key factor. HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) has become the first choice for AI server memory due to its high bandwidth and low power consumption. HBM 12hi is the latest generation of products, and the improvement of mass production yield will directly affect the performance and cost of AI servers.
Mass production yield status and challenges: At present, Samsung, SK hynix, Micron and other companies have submitted the first batch of HBM3e 12hi samples and entered the continuous verification stage. SK hynix and Micron are progressing quickly and are expected to complete the verification by the end of 2024. However, the mass production of HBM3e 12hi still faces yield and validation challenges. Historically, the mass production of HBM3 and HBM3e has shown that the yield of 8hi products usually requires a two-quarter learning curve to stabilize.
Capacity Planning and Market Impact: In order to meet market demand, some DRAM suppliers are stepping up their efforts to increase through-silicon (TSV) process capacity. Samsung plans to increase production from 120K per month by the end of 2024 to 170K by the end of 2025, an increase of more than 40%. However, as the product has not yet been fully validated, it remains to be seen whether the capacity ramp-up will be implemented as planned. HBM 12hi's speed of ramp-up in mass production will have a profound impact on the supply and price of AI servers, as well as the competitive landscape of the entire market.
Conclusion
Overall, the AI server market will continue to maintain strong growth in 2025, and the market size and shipments will increase significantly. The active layout and technological innovation of technology giants in the field of AI servers will inject new vitality into the market. The improvement rate of HBM 12hi mass production yield will directly affect the performance and cost of AI servers, which is a key factor that cannot be ignored in the future development of the industry, and deserves the industry's close attention.
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