Recently, Morgan Stanley, a well-known investment bank in the United States, released a research report that has attracted widespread attention, pointing out that China is "humanoid robots". (Humanoid Robot) technology has achieved a leading position in the United States. This judgment is based on a comprehensive analysis of multiple dimensions such as the global industrial chain, technology patents, enterprise development, and policy environment. This article will systematically evaluate the core views of the report and the current situation, advantages, challenges and future development of Chinese's humanoid robot industry, and provide a professional interpretation of the competition situation between China and the United States in this field.
Ⅰ.The analysis of the core factors leading the Chinese humanoid robot
1. The advantages of rare earth resources build the foundation of the supply chain
China owns about 65% of the world's rare earth mining capacity and 88% of the world's rare earth refining capacity (Source: U.S. Geological Survey, USGS 2023 Annual Report). Neodymium (Nd) and dysprosium (Dy) among the rare earth metals are the key materials for the manufacture of high-performance permanent magnet motors, while high-torque and lightweight motors are the core components of the joint structure of humanoid robots. This means that China has a high degree of control over the industrial chain of core components of robots, while limiting the flexibility of other countries in terms of raw material access and downstream capacity expansion.
The average commissioning period of new rare earth refining capacity is more than 10-15 years, which provides a strategic window for China to maintain the cost and delivery advantages of humanoid robot manufacturing.
Picture: Morgan Stanley report: China has led the United States in humanoid robot technology
2. Strong policy-driven and industrial planning coordination
Since the launch of the "Made in China 2025" strategy, the Chinese government has listed intelligent manufacturing and robotics as ten priority areas for development. According to the "14th Five-Year Plan" for the development of the robot industry, by 2025, the density of robots in China's manufacturing industry will exceed 150 units per 10,000 people. National and local industrial funds continue to inject capital, forming a "capital + R&D" model similar to the venture capital ecology of Silicon Valley. For example, the National Emerging Industry Venture Capital Guidance Fund has supported more than 20 billion yuan to invest directly in intelligent robot projects.
At the same time, China's infrastructure investment has been maintained at around 4.8%-5% of GDP for a long time (according to the National Bureau of Statistics), providing sufficient land, electricity, testing environment and data infrastructure for smart manufacturing and robotics clusters.
3. The education system provides a strong talent pool
According to the Ministry of Education, as of 2023, there are more than 11,000 universities in China with robotics and automation-related majors, with a total of 5 million students. In comparison, according to the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES), there are only about 923,000 students in the United States in similar majors. Chinese universities have generally strengthened the engineering education practice system, and vocational and technical colleges have also widely set up robot training centers, forming a complete echelon of engineers and technicians, which has played a key role in large-scale robot design, testing, assembly and service.
4. Local manufacturing capabilities continue to evolve
Since the implementation of the Law on Sino-Foreign Equity Joint Ventures in 1979, China has formed a unique manufacturing evolution path by absorbing global manufacturing experience. Cutting-edge enterprises represented by Unitree Robotics and Fourier Intelligence have used the advantages of local supply chains to iterate products with performance comparable to international brands at a lower cost. Unitree's G1 humanoid robot has successfully completed the world's first in-place side flip, a technology that has previously been seen in products of American companies such as Boston Dynamics.
Morgan Stanley believes that Chinese companies are rapidly optimizing design and manufacturing efficiency in the ecology of competition and imitation, which has compressed the hardware update cycle from the traditional 18 months to 9-12 months, which has greatly enhanced the market responsiveness.
Figure: Unitree humanoid robot has reached 99,000 yuan
5. Strategic thinking and cultural context synergy
Morgan Stanley specifically pointed out that the strategic thinking of "Go layout" in traditional Chinese culture has had a profound impact on the development of the humanoid robot industry. Unlike Western companies, which pursue quarterly financial performance, Chinese companies often adopt a long-term R&D investment strategy of "sharpening a sword in ten years", forming a patient and penetrating technology evolution path. For example, Xiaomi, BYD, and Huawei have shown in-depth planning for the whole machine ecology, chip integration, and scene adaptation when laying out robot product lines, rather than launching single products in isolation.
Ⅱ. Industrial progress: patents, enterprises and market scale are expanding rapidly
1. The number of patent applications is significantly ahead
According to data released by Morgan Stanley in February 2025, in the five years from 2019 to 2023, China has applied for a total of 5,688 patents related to "humanoid robots", ranking first in the world. The number of applications filed in the United States during the same period was 1,483, only a quarter of that of China. It is worth noting that China also leads the world in the number of applications in sub-fields such as perception modules, dynamic balance algorithms, and multimodal interaction.
2. The main body of the industry continues to expand
By the end of 2024, 15 Chinese companies have officially entered the field of R&D and mass production of humanoid robots, and have launched 17 prototype models, an increase of more than 70% from 10 in 2023. Xpeng's PX5 robot, Xiaomi's CyberOne 2.0, and Fourier Intelligence's rehabilitation robot have all entered the pilot deployment stage, and some products are scheduled to enter mass production in 2025.
3. Market expectations and broad business space
Morgan Stanley predicts that by 2050, the total market value of Chinese humanoid robots will reach 6 trillion yuan, and the total number of robots may reach 59 million. The penetration rate of humanoid robots in industrial manufacturing, medical care, security patrols, home services and other fields will increase rapidly, forming a complete ecology from parts, machine manufacturing to software systems.
Ⅲ. U.S. Advantages and the Structural Constraints It Faces
Although China is catching up on the manufacturing side, the United States still has a global leader in high-performance chips and AI algorithms, the "brains" of humanoid robots
* NVIDIA provides the Jetson Orin platform for robot perception, decision-making, and motion control;
* Boston Dynamics has always been at the forefront of technology with its deep accumulation of dynamic balancing and mechanical structure control;
* Tesla's Optimus planned factory deployment is in the demonstration phase and is designed to replace repetitive manual operations.
However, the supply chain of robot parts in the United States is not sound. Key components such as high-precision reducers still need to be imported from Japanese companies such as Harmonic Drive, which affects cost control and delivery cycle.
In addition, due to factors such as high manufacturing costs, rising salaries of engineers, and long production line commissioning cycles, humanoid robots have not yet been commercialized on a large scale.
Pictured: Tesla's humanoid robots are already being used in factories
Ⅳ.Developing China still faces key challenges
Despite the remarkable achievements, there are still three major concerns in the Chinese humanoid robot industry:
1. Dependence on imports of core components: the localization rate of high-end modules such as servo drives, reducers, and vision sensors has not yet exceeded 50%. Once the international supply chain fluctuates, it will have a great impact on the whole machine enterprise.
2. Increasing international competition: In addition to the United States, Japan (e.g., Honda Asimo) and South Korea (e.g., Samsung, Korea Advanced Research Institute) are also intensifying their research on robotics. If Chinese companies want to truly build global brand recognition, they still need to break through the dilemma of "technology equivalence and brand discount".
3. Lack of technical standards restricts overseas and interoperability: As a complex system that integrates electronic control, force control, and communication, humanoid robots have not yet formed a widely accepted international standard. China needs to accelerate the construction of the leading voice in standards organizations such as ISO and IEEE to improve its ability to adapt to standards in the global market.
5. Future outlook: China's advantages under the three-wheel drive of technology + policy + market
Looking forward to the future, the Chinese humanoid robot industry will usher in a triple "accelerator":
* Technological breakthroughs: Thanks to the maturity of basic technologies such as artificial intelligence, 5G communication, and edge computing, the intelligence level of humanoid robots will be rapidly improved;
* Scenario explosion: In the context of an aging society, there is a strong demand for humanoid robots in scenarios such as medical care, family care, and industrial flexible production;
* Policy guidance: The Chinese government continues to guide industrial agglomeration and R&D innovation through subsidies, financial discounts, industrial parks, and other means.
If the localization rate of core components exceeds 70% within 5 years, and an industry standard system with global influence can be established, China's dominant position in the global humanoid robot industry chain will be further consolidated.
Conclusion:
Although Morgan Stanley's research and judgment has caused controversy, it also reveals an important fact: with the comprehensive support of strategic resource control, policy promotion, market scale and manufacturing process, China's humanoid robot industry has entered the first echelon in the world. In the future, the game between China and the United States on this emerging technology highland will become another focus of global technology competition. If China can continue to deepen in technological innovation and system construction, it may truly achieve a historic leap from "manufacturing to creation" in the robot era.
